Who are the strongest players in the main categories ? (UPDATE)

upDATES
January 17 - BAFTA Nominations

DGA Update : It might be time to call it...War Horse is not going to be the frontrunner a lot of us thought. It failed to convince the Critics (25 groups announced their winners, not one single win in the 8 main categories), the WGA (it seems like the script isn't even in serious consideration), the DGA (Spielberg didn't even get a director nomination from the otherwise starlovin HFPA) and it doesn't have the oh-so-crucial support from the Actors (SAG), either. It will still get a best picture nomination and Spielberg might sneak in at the Oscars, too, but the film definitely won't be the big winner in the end. Meanwhile DGA offered no big surprises, the expected quartet (Hazanavicius, Scorsese, Payne, Allen) continued their winning streak and the lucky 5th was last year's runner-up, David Fincher whose 'Dragon Tattoo' might not have started out strong, but in the end it received the nominations that REALLY count : PGA, DGA, WGA. Now it should be considered a top5-contender...unless the Academy pulls a 'Dark Knight' on us, Fincher will get a Best Director nomination...his third in 4 years.

WGA Update : Several scripts were ineligible (The Artist, Shame, Martha Macy, Albert Nobbs, Drive, Margin Call, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Iron Lady and My Week with Marilyn), The Artist is the only one that has a strong shot at an Oscar nomination, although all the others seem like viable surprises, especially if the British-vote kicks in and secures a nod for the critically acclaimed Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy OR if the rumors are true and the Academy fell head over heels in love with My Week with Marilyn. Despite not receiving any major nominations so far, I wouldn't count out critical darlings Margin Call and Drive, either.

CHART after the cut

	BAFTA	GUILD	HFPA	BFCA
	BAFTA	PGA	HFPA	BFCA	SAG/ENSEMBLE
PICTURE		THE ARTIST	THE ARTIST	THE ARTIST	THE ARTIST
		DESCENDANTS	DESCENDANTS	DESCENDANTS	DESCENDANTS
		THE HELP	THE HELP	THE HELP	THE HELP
		PARIS	PARIS	PARIS	PARIS
		BRIDESMAIDS	BRIDESMAIDS	-	BRIDESMAIDS
		HUGO	HUGO	HUGO
		WAR HORSE	WAR HORSE	WAR HORSE
		MONEYBALL	MONEYBALL	MONEYBALL
		IDES OF MARCH	IDES OF MARCH	LOUD AND CLOSE
		DRAGON TATTOO	MARILYN	THE TREE OF LIFE
			50 / 50	DRIVE
	BAFTA	DGA	HFPA	BFCA
DIRECTOR		HAZANAVICIUS	HAZANAVICIUS	HAZANAVICIUS
		PAYNE	PAYNE	PAYNE
		SCORSESE	SCORSESE	SCORSESE
		ALLEN	ALLEN	SPIELBERG
		FINCHER	CLOONEY	DALDRY
				WINDING-REFN
	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
LEAD ACTRESS		WILLIAMS	WILLIAMS	WILLIAMS
		DAVIS	DAVIS	DAVIS
		STREEP	STREEP	STREEP
		SWINTON	SWINTON	SWINTON
		CLOSE	CLOSE	OLSEN
			THERON	THERON
			MARA
			WIIG
			FOSTER
			WINSLET
	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
LEAD ACTOR		DUJARDIN	DUJARDIN	DUJARDIN
		PITT	PITT	PITT
		CLOONEY	CLOONEY	CLOONEY
		DICAPRIO	DICAPRIO	DICAPRIO
		BICHIR	FASSBENDER	FASSBENDER
			GOSLING (2x)	GOSLING
			WILSON
			GORDON-LEWITT
			GLEESON
	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
SUPPORTING		BEJO	BEJO	BEJO
ACTRESS		CHASTAIN	CHASTAIN	CHASTAIN
		SPENCER	SPENCER	SPENCER
		MCTEER	MCTEER	MULLIGAN
		MCCARTHY	-	MCCARTHY
			WOODLEY	WOODLEY
	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
SUPPORTING		PLUMMER	PLUMMER	PLUMMER
ACTOR		BRANAGH	BRANAGH	BRANAGH
		HILL	HILL	OSWALT
		NOLTE	-	NOLTE
		HAMMER	BROOKS	BROOKS
			MORTENSEN	SERKIS
	BAFTA	WGA	HFPA	BFCA
ORIGINAL		ineligible	THE ARTIST	THE ARTIST
SCREENPLAY		PARIS	PARIS	PARIS
		50 / 50	-	50 / 50
		YOUNG ADULT	-	YOUNG ADULT
		WIN WIN	-	WIN WIN
		BRIDESMAIDS
	BAFTA	WGA	HFPA	BFCA
ADAPTED		DESCENDANTS	DESCENDANTS	DESCENDANTS
SCREENPLAY		MONEYBALL	MONEYBALL	MONEYBALL
		THE HELP	-	THE HELP
		HUGO	-	HUGO
		DRAGON TATTOO	IDES OF MARCH	LOUD AND CLOSE