(Probably) Final Oscar Predictions

12 – Hugo

10 – The Artist

8 – The Help
7 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo / Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

6 – The Descendants / War Horse / The Tree of Life

5 – Midnight in Paris

3 – Moneyball / My Week with Marilyn / The Iron Lady / Albert Nobbs

MOST LIKELY TO SURPRISE

(As far as potential surprises go, my money is on The Tree of Life, Deathly Hallows Part II, Rooney Mara, Gary Oldman, Marion Cotillard and Ben Kingsley. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy is also a strong possibility and although I probably shouldn't consider it a 'potential surprise', I will be, indeed surprised if guild-fave Bridesmaids manages to pull off the 5% No1, the new Best Picture rule requires.)

1. If the British-vote kicks in, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy and/ or Deathly Hallows Part II could suddenly emerge as top players (picture, screenplay, actor, supporting actor etc.). Also, if any of the all-but-ruled-out British acting contenders (Knightley, Mulligan, Redgrave, Kingsley, Butterfield, Rickman, Fiennes, Firth, Cumberbatch etc. ) makes the cut, we'll know for sure...the myth of the British-vote is real.
2. If the Academy decides to go 'modern', they might surprise the ones – including myself - who expect them to make their usual conservative choices. In this case, critical fave Drive and guild-darling Bridesmaids might be able to fight off the genre-prejudice AND the new rule, and pull off the 5% No1 votes. If 'modern' will be the word this year (now THAT would be a first...), Andy Serkis could also find himself on the shortlist...although the Academy might consider making him wait a little longer and nominate him for his signature -role next year.
3. Also, the potential effect of the new bp-rule shouldn't be underestimated. In theory, it could easily happen that Academy-fave directors will prove that they do have the kind of passionate fanbase in the Academy that could secure them the 5% No1 - and if that happens, at least one member of the Tree-March-Edgar-Adult-Loud quintet could sneak in – meanwhile films that are considered seriously in several other categories (The Help, Moneyball, Bridesmaids), would probably suffer bp-wise.
4. Strong acting contenders could be nominated for unexpected films : if the Academy really embraces The Tree of Life, Jessica Chastain could be easily nominated for that and not The Help, and as impossible as it sounds, I think even Brad Pitt could get the Lead Actor nod for the Malick-film (or maybe two nominations, Moneyball in lead and Tree of Life in supporting ?). If Shame is too racy for the Academy, they could still nominate Michael Fassbender for A Dangerous Method or Jane Eyre, not to mention Christopher Plummer who is the frontrunner at the moment for the little-seen Beginners, but is also in contention for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, a film that unlike his other one, IS a serious best picture contender AND an international Box Office hit.
5. At least one acting contender with no significant buzz or precursor-love, could shockingly sneak in IF the Academy really embraces his/her film : The Artist (John Goodman, James Cromwell); The Descendants (Judy Greer, Robert Forster); Midnight in Paris (Owen Wilson, Marion Cotillard, Kathy Bates, Corey Stoll); Hugo (Asa Butterfield, Chloe Moretz, Ben Kingsley); Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II (Alan Rickman, Ralph Fiennes, Maggie Smith, Helena Bonham Carter); War Horse (Jeremy Irvine, Emily Watson); Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Thomas Horn, Max von Sydow, Sandra Bullock, Tom Hanks); Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Gary Oldman, Colin Firth, Tom Hardy); The Ides of March (Ryan Gosling, George Clooney, Evan Reachel Wood); A Dangerous Method (Keira Knightley, Michael Fassbender, Viggo Mortensen); J. Edgar (Armie Hammer, Judi Dench, Naomi Watts); The Help (Emma Stone, Bryce Dallas Howard);  Margin Call (Jeremy Irons, Paul Bettany, Stanley Tucci, Kevin Spacey);  Margaret (Anna Paquin, Matt Damon, Jeannie Berlin); Warrior (Tom Hardy, Joel Edgerton); We bought a Zoo (Matt Damon); Super 8 (Elle Fanning); plus the overachievers, Benedict Cumberbatch (War Horse OR Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy) and Tom Hiddleston (Midnight in Paris OR War Horse).
   
   
   +1 Highly unlikely, but prestige films – A Dangerous Method, Carnage, Jane Eyre, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Margaret, Margin Call - with NO significant buzz, could surprise, too...no, scratch that, if any of these receive ANY Oscar-nominations in the 8 main categories, that will be shocking, not surprising.

Chart after the cut !

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
PICTURE	THE ARTIST	DESCENDANTS	PARIS	HUGO	DRAGON T.	WAR HORSE	THE HELP	MONEYBALL	TREE	HARRY POTTER
	TINKER	BRIDESMAIDS	MARCH	DRIVE	MARILYN	J. EDGAR	LOUD	SEPARATION	APES	YOUNG ADULT
DIRECTOR	HAZANAVICIUS	PAYNE	ALLEN	SCORSESE	FINCHER	SPIELBERG	MALICK	TAYLOR	MILLER	CLOONEY
LEAD ACTRESS	WILLIAMS	DAVIS	STREEP	CLOSE	MARA	SWINTON	THERON	DUNST	OLSEN	STONE
LEAD ACTOR	DUJARDIN	PITT	CLOONEY	DICAPRIO	OLDMAN	FASSBENDER	BICHIR	GOSLING	SHANNON	GORDON-LEWITT
SUPP. ACTRESS	CHASTAIN	SPENCER	BEJO	WOODLEY	COTILLARD	MCCARTHY	MCTEER	MULLIGAN	REDGRAVE	BULLOCK
SUPP. ACTOR	PLUMMER	BRANAGH	NOLTE	BROOKS	KINGSLEY	HILL	HAMMER	OSWALT	VON SYDOW	RICKMAN/FIENNES
O. SCREENPLAY	PARIS	THE ARTIST	BRIDESMAIDS	YOUNG A.	TREE OF LIFE	SEPARATION	50 / 50	WIN WIN	BEGINNERS	MARGIN CALL
A. SCREENPLAY	DESCENDANTS	MONEYBALL	HUGO	THE HELP	DRAGON T.	WAR HORSE	HARRY P.	TINKER	MARCH	LOUD & CLOSE
EDITING	HUGO	THE ARTIST	DRAGON T.	PARIS	DESCENDANTS	WAR HORSE	MONEYBALL	TINKER	TREE	HARRY POTTER
CINEMATOGRAPHY	TREE OF LIFE	HUGO	THE ARTIST	DRAGON	WAR HORSE	TINKER	HARRY P.	PARIS	DRIVE	LOUD & CLOSE
ORIGINAL SCORE	WAR HORSE	HUGO	THE ARTIST	DRAGON	HARRY P.	TINKER	LOUD	JANE EYRE	SUPER 8	TINTIN
ORIGINAL SONG	THE HELP	MUPPETS	ALBERT N.	GNOMEO	MUPPETS	PREACHER	MUPPETS	RIO	CARS 2	GNOMEO
ART DIRECTION	HARRY P.	HUGO	THE ARTIST	THE HELP	WAR HORSE	TREE	DRAGON T.	ANONYMOUS	TINKER	PIRATES
COSTUME DESIGN	HUGO	THE ARTIST	MARILYN	THE HELP	IRON LADY	HARRY P.	TINKER	J. EDGAR	JANE EYRE	ANONYMOUS
SOUND	HARRY P.	HUGO	WAR HORSE	TREE	SUPER 8	MI4	X-MEN	PIRATES	REAL STEEL	TRANSFORMERS
SOUND EDITING	HARRY P.	HUGO	WAR HORSE	TREE	MI4	SUPER 8	X-MEN	PIRATES	REAL STEEL	TRANSFORMERS
VISUAL EFFECTS	HARRY P.	HUGO	TREE OF LIFE	APES	CAPTAIN A.	MI4	X-MEN	PIRATES	REAL STEEL	TRANSFORMERS
MAKE-UP	IRON LADY	HARRY P.	ALBERT N.	HUGO	THE ARTIST	ANONYMOUS	GAINSBOURG	-	-	-
ANIMATED F.	RANGO	TINTIN	PUSS	ARTHUR	PANDA 2	CARS 2	WINNIE	RIO	GNOMEO	ALOIS NEBEL
DOCUMENTARY	CAVE OF...	PROJECT NIM	HARRISON	PAGE ONE	PINA	UNDEFEAT	WE WERE	BUCK	CUNNINGHAM	PARADISE LOST
FOREIGN L. F.	A SEPARATION	LE HAVRE	WHERE DO	ANATOLIA	FLOWERS OF	TURIN	DECLARATION	PINA	IN DARKNESS	BEAUTY

(Update : I tweaked my Cinematography-predictions a little. Harry out, Lisbeth in)