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11/22/2021

Best Picture 2021 / 2022








BP is starting to look interesting. I think currently these films have the best shot at getting the nomination (not the win) in this order :

NEAR-LOCK

1. The Power of the Dog - Luckily for us the early frontrunner is a true cinematic masterpiece so while it may not appeal to everyone thus could lose in the end, the nomination is all but guaranteed.

2. Belfast - The respectable reviews and Box Office will help but the arrival of several flashy late entries could complicate things for this classic "little film that could" type of contender.

IF REVIEWS ARE AS SOLID AS THE OFFICIAL EARLY WORD

3. Being the Ricardos - A film about the industry featuring industry faves behind and in front of the camera, that has been playing like gangbusters at early industry screenings. If the reviews will be at least similarly enthusiastic (70+ MC), I think the BP nod is happening.

4. Don't Look Up - A flashy dark comedy with a snappy screenplay and probably the most high-profile ensembles of all time ? I think it is in, as well, early word is good enough so even if it will divide critics somewhat, I think the biggest Academy branch (actors) will secure it the nod ... they might as well they all seem to be in it anyway.

STRONG CONTENDERS

5. Licorice Pizza - Definitely a critics's fave and 8-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson is definitely long overdue for a big Oscar night, but his films - while always critically acclaimed memorable cinematic experiences - have a quite spotty Oscar track record. This looks like a cross between Boogie Nights (same era / similar aesthetics / dramedy vibe) and Punch Drunk Love (bittersweet kinda-romcom vibe) and neither of those films received BP / BD / lead acting nominations. So for now I am 99% sure about only one nomination here : original screenplay. It will probably make the cut in other top categories, as well, but I need to see how it performs with the guilds first because precedent is rather tricky here.

6. Dune - It will definitely get a lot of nominations, most of them in below the line categories. I am not as sold on its BP / BD prospects as most of the internet is, but I wouldn't be surprised, that's for sure. But for the record if Being the Ricardos AND Don't Look Up over perform with critics and West Side Story AND Nightmare Alley get raves, too, then that Villeneuve BD nod could suddenly become a very difficult proposition as brilliant as he always is.

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth - On paper (pedigree + rave reviews + fourth quarter release date) it is in and probably should be ranked higher, as well, but for whatever reason I am just not sure about this one. The Academy rarely goes for the avantgarde stuff but granted if they will this year, they will do it for a trio of their favourites (Coen+Washington+McDormand).

8. King Richard - I think the film was good not great and while I expect it to be a serious contender in the acting categories, I no longer think it will be a strong contender in BD so while a BP nod is still a strong possibility (pandemic-era Box Office further complicated by a day-and-date release is not great but also not a dealbreaker), I think it will be a filler BP nod. At best. It could just be 2 nominations total for Smith and Ellis, would not surprise me one bit.

HOLDING THEIR SLOTS (FOR NOW)

9. West Side Story - I have to keep reminding myself not to underestimate this one, I mean how could I underestimate the remake of a legendary BP winner directed by a legendary 2-time Oscar winning director, adapted by a 2-time Oscar nominee who also just happens to be a Pulitzer+Tony+Emmy winner. The production values also look top-notch and it also looks like an unprecedented acting showcase for three relatively unknown Latinx performers (Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez). Long story short : a filler BP nod looks likely even if it gets a lukewarm reception but if it gets strong reviews and even makes some money during the Holiday season ? All bets are off.

10. Nightmare Alley - I am getting a bit of a Licorice Pizza vibe here in a sense that this is once again a film from a fascinating director who always delivers "cinema" but not always gets the mainstream recognition that he deserves. The source material is good but not necessarily "must be remade" good so as far as Oscar-reception goes, I have to say, I am sensing more of a Crimson Peak vibe than The Shape of Water vibe this time. Then again nobody has seen it yet so I could be way off, it's just a hunch.

A HIGH-PROFILE PERFORMANCE COULD GET IT TO THE TOP OF THE SCREENER PILE

11. Spencer - Speaking of directors delivering "cinema". Most of the attention has been understandably on the central performance but I also believe the film would deserve strong consideration in score, cinematography, costumes the very least, as well, and if it were up to me than BP / BD would happen, too, the film was that good in my book. But it is not up to me so for now it is considerably more likely that it will get the Jackie nominations : actress, costumes, score. MAYBE a fourth because ffs how long does the Academy plan on ignoring the brilliance of Claire Mathon ?

12. Parallel Mothers - I haven't seen it yet but it is an Almodovar-Cruz reunion about motherhood and the last time they did something similar, I was madly in love with the end result (Volver). While the foreign language precedent doesn't help, ironically enough the snub by its own country in the Best International Film category, does. Since voters can't just nominate it there, their only option is BP which is great because it also can't split votes with itself between those two categories so the ones who love it, will ALL vote for it in BP since Best International Film is not an option. Also if the film is already a near-lock in acting and writing categories, BP consideration really can't be that far behind, either.

13. House of Gucci - Reviews are not bad but they are not great, either, so I think now it entirely depends on Box Office. It is a big-budget studio film and while due to the pandemic there will be some wiggle room here, if it is DOA like the other recent adult-skewing studio films, I think perception-wise it will be done. Mediocre reviews AND Box Office flop status is not a combo that will fly, it can get away with one of the two but not both. And for the record I am ranking it this low because I don't expect it to do super well at the Box Office, either.

14. Cyrano - VERY under the radar, no doubt about that, but at the same time it could be perfectly positioned for the voting periods of the major awards organisations so if it continues to get good ink and positive audience reactions, I think there is a chance this will emerge somewhat last minute. The fact that the much-praised Dinklage performance and the swoon-worthy aspect of the film could make it an appealing screener option for voters during the Holiday season, won't hurt, either.

14. tick, tick ... BOOM! - I went in cold and I was very pleasantly surprised by this one and if actors decide to support it (SAG + biggest Academy branch), I think there is still a chance this will rank higher than many of us are thinking right about now. For what it's worth its reviews are in that very-good-not-quite-great range that could go either way as far as BP consideration goes but at the end of the day, I think it will come down to the priorities of Netflix : their hands will be full with The Power of the Dog and Don't Look Up already and they are also pushing The Lost Daughter and Passing in major categories so in the end they may just decide to push only Garfield from the tick, tick...BOOM! team.

SERIOUS CONSIDERATION IN ACTING+WRITING COULD GIVE IT THE EDGE

15. The Lost Daughter - The film did get rave reviews, Maggie Gyllenhaal did win Best Screenplay at the Venice Film Festival and in the period of only 4 years, Olivia Colman did quickly become an Oscar darling with a win in lead and a follow-up nomination in supporting. And just like Parallel Mothers, if this one will also get serious consideration in acting and writing, then it will be clearly seen as one of the best films of the year, as well.

16. Passing - Rebecca Hall also made a big splash with this one in Sundance and then thanks to a fourth-quarter release by Netflix, the film reemerged with excellent timing when it received proper rave reviews (85 MC) and strong Oscar buzz for its actresses and while it very much looked like Ruth Negga will be the main Oscar bid here, considering Netflix got Tessa Thompson a seat at the THR roundtable even though they have 4 much higher-profile, Oscar winning leading ladies this season (Colman, Bullock, Berry, Lawrence), too, makes me think Thompson will get a splashy campaign from Netflix after all.

17. C'mon C'mon - Rave reviews should definitely help in the screenplay category even if the acting categories may not have room for the stellar central performances. We'll see, for now the film looks too small and quiet in a sea of flashy, loud, star-studded extravaganzas but if the critics group give it a boost, it may still be able to break through.

18. Mass - Ditto.

MOST LIKELY TO GET A SEMI-UNEXPECTED GUILD BOOST

19. The Last Duel - The relatively early release date, the good-not-great reviews and the abysmal Box Office are not great perception-wise, but the film also has a lot of vocal and high-profile fans and the classic Hollywood filmmaking could go a long way with guild voters, not to mention Jodie Comer's universally praised performance that could also garner a SAG surprise considering she is a TV icon and most of the SAG voters work in television ... she also has hometown advantage at the Baftas and the luxury of 10 Best Actress slots at the Golden Globes, so I would not underestimate her just yet, either. And if she makes the cut and the film gets a few tech nods, as well, AND Sir Ridley's other film doesn't get much, then a filler BP nod could still happen here. But those are a looooot of ifs. Hence the ranking.

20. Coda - It was a good film, not necessarily a great film and when those get released super early (August) and as expected, peak early, too, that usually means they won't be factors by December/January. Having said that a SAG Ensemble nomination remains a strong possibility and it can not be emphasised enough that if of all branches, the Actors support a movie, then that could go a long LONG way on Oscar Nominations Morning for sure

8/03/2021

Scarlett Johansson vs The Happiest Place on Earth


A few days ago we once again had to realise that the film industry just doesn't seem to have the ability to learn from their mistakes.

In 2014 when the Sony hack exposed that A-list actresses Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence got considerably less for American Hustle than their male co-stars, public apologies and "we will do better"s followed.


In 2018 when it was revealed that 4-time Oscar nominee Michelle Williams got a salary for the reshoots of All The Money In the World, that was 0.07% of what her male co-star, Mark Wahlberg got for the same reshoots, public apologies and "we will do better"s followed. 



And now here we are in 2021 and the biggest female movie star on the planet has to sue the studio she made 9 films with because in spite of their history, shared success and all the billions of dollars their films made, the studio still thought they can get away with screwing her out of her bonuses. Let's keep in mind that this is what this major studio dares to pull on a global movie star, imagine what they do to the contracts of relative unknowns, off-screen talent and non-creative staff.


While I don't think this lawsuit will have a big impact on how the theatrical window / streaming release patterns have been changing lately, I absolutely think it will have a big impact on how studios will treat their talent from now on. When Warner Bros. announced that their 2021 feature lineup will be available on HBO Max the same day, they knew what had to be done and they did it : reached out to the reps of the major talent behind those films and negotiated pre-release bonuses for them to make up for the lack of BO-related bonuses that the same day streamer releases clearly annihilated. Denzel Washington got his bonus, Gal Gadot got her bonus and the list goes on.


Disney should have done exactly the same for the talent behind the feature films they put on Disney+. They didn't because they are infamously cheap and big enough to think they can get away with it. They most likely will not. Disney is about to find out that they cant expect to win a war they started by not honouring their contract with one of their biggest stars and further fuelled by having the audacity to attempt to shame her into submission with the pandemic.


What Disney got very consciously wrong in order to turn the public opinion against Johansson, is this : the lawsuit doesnt claim the pandemic is their fault, but that Disney+ side hustle of theirs that is pure profit for them while screws over theatres and talent, IS definitely their fault. Nobody demanded a 12-week window but a Paramount-style 45 days would have been more than warranted and as the leggy run of A Quiet Place 2 proved, it would have been actually the wise decision, too. Unless of course boosting their streamer service had been more important for Disney all along than doing right by their talent and the theatrical business that was in dire need of an exclusive run of a film of Black Widows stature. F9 was granted an exclusive theatrical run and will probably end around 700M worldwide. Considering that F9 had bad reviews, a weaker brand than Marvel and less of a four-quadrant quality than Black Widow, had latter gotten an exclusive theatrical run, it would have most likely made at least that 700M and probably a lot more. At the moment it is looking at 350-400M at best. 



Based on their statement released last week, CAA is already officially on Johansson's side. They do represent pretty much everyone on the A-list. Some other A-listers Emma Stone and Emily Blunt are also reportedly considering legal action. Creatives all over town are reportedly supporting Johansson and understand completely that this is all on Disney.


And of course if / when this goes to court, all their dirty laundry will be aired. It will be probably brought up that it is curious how Disney was willing to sacrifice the exclusive theatrical runs of female star vehicles (Mulan, Raya, Cruella, Black Widow, Jungle Cruise (two-hander)) while they kept a theatrical window for male star vehicles (Free Guy, Shang-Chi). And if it turns out that the only male co-lead in those 5 films, Dwayne Johnson, did get a pre-release bonus to make up for the same-day streamer release while the 5 female leads, including 3 A-listers, got nada, that will be only oil to the fire. 




It will be probably brought up that their cheapskate ways are nothing new and probably ALL the anecdotes that can be easily proven, will be brought up, as well. The time when Dan Stevens was denied a rental car upgrade that would have accommodated her small children while filming Beauty and the Beast. Or when Lily James couldnt fly with her mother to the Cinderella premiere because Disney only bought one first-class ticket. Those kind of anecdotes. And with CAA representing so many former and current Disney stars and are now officially on the other side, my guess is they have many, MANY more incredibly embarrassing anecdotes like that about Disney's penny-pinching ways which is all the more ridiculous considering the company assets are worth how much again ? $200B+ ? 




Then of course all the inconvenient questions will be asked : if Disney doesnt even respect the contracts of superstars like Scarlett Johansson, Emma Stone and Emily Blunt and cant even respect the then-relative-unknown actors who played titular characters in huge hits of theirs (Lily James, Dan Stevens) then what about the rest of their casts and crews ? If this is how they treat their stars how do they treat the supporting players ? The unknown cast members ? The off-screen talent ? The non-creative staff ? What about their contracts and compensations ?


And that will be the moment when Disney will finally realise that they messed with the wrong crowd and they should have never gone to court and they should have just settled out of court, followed WB's example and quickly compensated everyone who had been financially negatively impacted by their Disney+ side hustle, before ALL their talent realised that they were not alone, teamed up and took them to the cleaners.


At this very moment, it is still not too late. Disney CAN still make this all go away. But it will cost them. And it will cost them a lot more now than it would have months ago when they still had the chance to do the right thing.


I guess that will be a lesson learned here. IF they are smart. And you know, considerably less shameless than they were last week when they released that disgusting attempt at a gendered character assassination just because a woman had the nerve to tell them they have to honour the contract they both signed.


They insinuated Johansson was insensitive to the pandemic at a time when Disney was under fire for firing tens of thousands of their employees citing the pandemic as the reason AND at the same time opening their theme parks too early by pandemic standards.


They also insinuated that Johansson should essentially sit down and shut up since she already got a nice upfront pay check worth 20M. Revealing this number was not only unprofessional but clearly a tactic to rile up the public to scream from the rooftops that "she already got 20M ? what else does she want ?" but this whole thing is a lot bigger than just one salary and one woman.


This case is essentially about how major companies have no problem violating the contract of a woman while they would never EVER do that to her male counter-part. Or at least I don't see Disney pulling this nonsense on Robert Downey Jr who reportedly made $50M+ at least 5 times with Marvel movies.


It is not about whether Johansson needs this money or not. She clearly does not. But if she is still owed this money, it should be paid. 


It IS that simple. 

12/09/2018

Awards Chart - 2018 / 2019



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