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12/01/2011

What last year's precursors taught me...


1. THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Just because a film sweeps the critics groups in the three main categories (picture-director-screenplay), doesn't mean it will sweep the Oscars, too.

2. QUANTITY vs. QUALITY

If you have enough little victories, without convincing ANY of the 5 big critics groups (NYFCC, LAFCA, WAFCA, NSFC + NBR), it might be still enough to be considered the frontrunner and then win an Oscar. Annette Bening won the prestigious Best Actress Award of the New York Film Critics Circle, but nothing else afterwards, meanwhile Natalie Portman didn't have prominent wins...but she had a bunch of little ones, so by the time the 'big ones' (SAG, HFPA, BAFTA, BFCA) started voting, the general consensus was that since Portman had been winning an award basically on a daily basis, she must be the best.

3. 'THE MULLIGAN'

Critics groups could greatly help a relatively unknown, young acting contender. Last year they secured excellent early word for Jennifer Lawrence and Hailee Steinfeld, this year they might do the same for Shailene Woodley. The NBR win is definitely a good start and it also helps that her film is a remarkably strong bp-contender. Woodley isn't the only newbie this year who could be prominent in the critics-groups-phase ... Elizabeth Olsen should receive a few awards in the next few weeks, as well.

4. A REAL FIGHTER'S TRUE GRIT

A film doesn't necessarily need the critics groups...last year The Fighter and True Grit became top5 (bp+bd nods) players without a single best picture OR best director OR best screenplay win during the whole season and to top that, last year's big Oscar-winner, The King's Speech had zero director-wins during the critics groups-phase and only one best picture victory. That proves perfectly that though the critics groups might influence the race, ultimately it all comes down to the guilds.

5. PRECURSORS COULD MEAN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OSCAR-WISE

The Social Network lost. 
Christopher Nolan once again did NOT receive his first Best Director nomination.
Mila Kunis didn't get a nomination despite decent precursors (SAG-GG-BFCA) and bp-bd nods.





BEST
PICTURE
BEST
DIRECTOR
LEAD
ACTOR
LEAD
ACTRESS
SUPP.
ACTOR
SUPP.
ACTRESS
O.
SCRIPT
A.
SCRIPT
NBR TSN FINCHER EISENBERG MANVILLE BALE WEAVER BURIED TSN
WASHINGTON TSN FINCHER FIRTH LAWRENCE BALE LEO INCEPTION TSN
BOSTON TSN FINCHER EISENBERG PORTMAN BALE LEWIS - TSN
NEW YORK (O) TSN FINCHER FRANCO PORTMAN BALE LEO - TSN
LOS ANGELES TSN FINCHER FIRTH HYE-JA ARESTRUP WEAVER - TSN
INDIANA TSN NOLAN FRANCO PORTMAN BALE STEINFELD - TSN
SOUTHEASTERN TSN FINCHER FIRTH PORTMAN RUSH STEINFELD TKS TSN
NEW YORK TSN FINCHER FIRTH BENING RUFFALO LEO TKAAR -
SAN
FRANCISCO
TSN FINCHER
ARONOFSKY
FIRTH WILLIAMS HAWKES WEAVER TKS TSN
TORONTO TSN FINCHER EISENBERG LAWRENCE HAMMER STEINFELD - TSN
SAN DIEGO WB ARONOFSKY FARRELL LAWRENCE HAWKES MANVILLE FOURLIONS TSN
LAS VEGAS TSN FINCHER FRANCO PORTMAN BALE ADAMS - TSN
DETROIT TSN BOYLE FIRTH LAWRENCE BALE ADAMS - -
DALLAS TSN FINCHER FRANCO PORTMAN BALE LEO - TSN
HOUSTON TSN FINCHER EISENBERG PORTMAN BALE STEINFELD - TSN
FLORIDA TSN FINCHER FIRTH PORTMAN BALE LEO INCEPTION TSN
ST. LOUIS TSN FINCHER FIRTH PORTMAN BALE LEO TKS TSN
CHICAGO TSN FINCHER FIRTH PORTMAN BALE STEINFELD INCEPTION TSN
AUSTIN BS ARONOFSKY FIRTH PORTMAN BALE STEINFELD BS TSN
OKLAHOMA TSN FINCHER EISENBERG PORTMAN BALE KUNIS INCEPTION TSN
UTAH TSN
127
FINCHER
NOLAN
FRANCO PORTMAN BALE WEAVER - TSN
PHOENIX
TKS
NOLAN FIRTH PORTMAN BALE LEO INCEPTION TSN
KANSAS TSN NOLAN FIRTH PORTMAN BALE STEINFELD INCEPTION TSN
ONLINE TSN FINCHER FIRTH PORTMAN BALE STEINFELD INCEPTION TSN
OHIO INCEPTION NOLAN FRANCO PORTMAN RUSH STEINFELD INCEPTION TSN
NSFC TSN FINCHER EISENBERG MEZZOGIORNO RUSH O.WILLIAMS - TSN
NORTH TEXAS
INCEPTION
NOLAN
FIRTH
PORTMAN
BALE
LEO
-
-
VANCOUVER
TSN
FINCHER
FIRTH
LAWRENCE
BALE
STEINFELD
-
TSN
IOWA
TSN
FINCHER
FIRTH
PORTMAN
BALE
LEO
-
-
BFCA TSN FINCHER FIRTH PORTMAN BALE LEO TKS TSN
HFPA
TSN
TKAAR
FINCHER FIRTH
GIAMATTI
PORTMAN
BENING
BALE LEO

TSN
PGA TKS
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

2 comments:

  1. great chart. Glad to see you're back. (and with a vengeance)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks, I had a ridiculously busy schedule in the last few months, but now I'm back :) I have a few articles in the making, as well.

    ReplyDelete