2011 - Best Picture IV.

 POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

(the ones that could actually win)

1. The Artist
   A critically acclaimed Weinstein-crowdpleaser...rest my case.
2. The Descendants
   The Academy could easily go for their beloved Clooney-Payne duo.
3. Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud
   Very Oscary material…Daldry’s year ?
4. War Horse
   On paper, THE most obvious pick.
5. Hugo
   It has the reviews…but it was expensive, so it has to make money, too !
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
   Could Fincher pull a ‘Departed’ ? After last year ? YES
7. Midnight in Paris
   Could it go all the way ? I’m starting to think it MIGHT.
8. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
   A BP-nod could happen, BD will be the dealbreaker here.
9. Moneyball
   It is definitely a solid contender (reviews, BO, star power).
10. The Tree of Life
    The new rule helps the “name” directors”, even if their films faded.

STRONG CONTENDERS

(the ones that could have viable shots at that crucial 5% AND a nod, but not enough for a win)

11. The Help
    It needs some serious girlpower to pull off that 5% No1.
12. Young Adult
    The Academy loves Reitman’s dramedies, but this one might be too divisive.
13. We bought a Zoo
    Early whispers suggest it might be Crowe’s big Oscar-comeback.
14. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
    Great early word and ensemble, but the competition is tough.
15. My Week with Marilyn
    Better-than-expected reviews + Weinsteins = possible bp-nod
16. A Dangerous method
    Good to great reviews, stellar performances, Oscary material, Cronenberg…
17. Coriolanus
    I could see this one break out in a big way.
18. The Ides of March
    The new rule helps the “name” directors”...
19. J. Edgar
    Ditto.
20. Carnage
    Ditto.
    
    
    DARK HORSES
    (the potential not-so-surprising surprises)
    
    
    
    
    
21. Shame
    One of the best films of 2011…but it is probably not for the Academy.
22. We need to talk about Kevin
    If there is any justice, this will emerge as a serious contender.
23. In the Land of Blood and Honey
    Big question mark…could she do it ?
24. Bridesmaids
    If ‘The Hangover’ didn’t make it with THAT BO and GG bp-victory…
25. Beginners
    Great reviews and performances but probably too “light” and early, maybe GG ?
26. 50 / 50
    Ditto.
27. Jane Eyre
    Focus started campaigning, it is remarkably Oscary, so it COULD have a comeback.
28. The Iron Lady
    As, always…all about Streep…the film doesn’t seem strong enough.
29. Take Shelter
    Oh, if only…LOVED this one, but probably too small for the Academy.
30. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
    Too “genre” for the main categories.