(the ones that could actually win)
- The ArtistA critically acclaimed Weinstein-crowdpleaser...rest my case.
- The DescendantsThe Academy could easily go for their beloved Clooney-Payne duo.
- Extremely Close and Incredibly LoudVery Oscary material…Daldry’s year ?
- War HorseOn paper, THE most obvious pick.
- HugoIt has the reviews…but it was expensive, so it has to make money, too !
- The Girl with the Dragon TattooCould Fincher pull a ‘Departed’ ? After last year ? YES
- Midnight in ParisCould it go all the way ? I’m starting to think it MIGHT.
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part IIA BP-nod could happen, BD will be the dealbreaker here.
- MoneyballIt is definitely a solid contender (reviews, BO, star power).
- The Tree of Life
(the ones that could have viable shots at that crucial 5% AND a nod, but not enough for a win)
- The HelpIt needs some serious girlpower to pull off that 5% No1.
- Young AdultThe Academy loves Reitman’s dramedies, but this one might be too divisive.
- We bought a ZooEarly whispers suggest it might be Crowe’s big Oscar-comeback.
- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, SpyGreat early word and ensemble, but the competition is tough.
- My Week with MarilynBetter-than-expected reviews + Weinsteins = possible bp-nod
- A Dangerous methodGood to great reviews, stellar performances, Oscary material, Cronenberg…
- CoriolanusI could see this one break out in a big way.
- The Ides of MarchThe new rule helps the “name” directors”...
- J. EdgarDitto.
DARK HORSES(the potential not-so-surprising surprises)
- ShameOne of the best films of 2011…but it is probably not for the Academy.
- We need to talk about KevinIf there is any justice, this will emerge as a serious contender.
- In the Land of Blood and HoneyBig question mark…could she do it ?
- BridesmaidsIf ‘The Hangover’ didn’t make it with THAT BO and GG bp-victory…
- BeginnersGreat reviews and performances but probably too “light” and early, maybe GG ?
- 50 / 50Ditto.
- Jane EyreFocus started campaigning, it is remarkably Oscary, so it COULD have a comeback.
- The Iron LadyAs, always…all about Streep…the film doesn’t seem strong enough.
- Take ShelterOh, if only…LOVED this one, but probably too small for the Academy.
- Rise of the Planet of the ApesToo “genre” for the main categories.