What last year's precursors taught me...

1. THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE SOCIAL NETWORK

Just because a film sweeps the critics groups in the three main categories (picture-director-screenplay), doesn't mean it will sweep the Oscars, too.

2. QUANTITY vs. QUALITY

If you have enough little victories, without convincing ANY of the 5 big critics groups (NYFCC, LAFCA, WAFCA, NSFC + NBR), it might be still enough to be considered the frontrunner and then win an Oscar. Annette Bening won the prestigious Best Actress Award of the New York Film Critics Circle, but nothing else afterwards, meanwhile Natalie Portman didn't have prominent wins...but she had a bunch of little ones, so by the time the 'big ones' (SAG, HFPA, BAFTA, BFCA) started voting, the general consensus was that since Portman had been winning an award basically on a daily basis, she must be the best.

3. 'THE MULLIGAN'

Critics groups could greatly help a relatively unknown, young acting contender. Last year they secured excellent early word for Jennifer Lawrence and Hailee Steinfeld, this year they might do the same for Shailene Woodley. The NBR win is definitely a good start and it also helps that her film is a remarkably strong bp-contender. Woodley isn't the only newbie this year who could be prominent in the critics-groups-phase ... Elizabeth Olsen should receive a few awards in the next few weeks, as well.

4. A REAL FIGHTER'S TRUE GRIT

A film doesn't necessarily need the critics groups...last year The Fighter and True Grit became top5 (bp+bd nods) players without a single best picture OR best director OR best screenplay win during the whole season and to top that, last year's big Oscar-winner, The King's Speech had zero director-wins during the critics groups-phase and only one best picture victory. That proves perfectly that though the critics groups might influence the race, ultimately it all comes down to the guilds.

5. PRECURSORS COULD MEAN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OSCAR-WISE

The Social Network lost. 

Christopher Nolan once again did NOT receive his first Best Director nomination.

Mila Kunis didn't get a nomination despite decent precursors (SAG-GG-BFCA) and bp-bd nods.

	BEST PICTURE	BEST DIRECTOR	LEAD ACTOR	LEAD ACTRESS	SUPP. ACTOR	SUPP. ACTRESS	O. SCRIPT	A. SCRIPT
NBR	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	MANVILLE	BALE	WEAVER	BURIED	TSN
WASHINGTON	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	LAWRENCE	BALE	LEO	INCEPTION	TSN
BOSTON	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	PORTMAN	BALE	LEWIS	-	TSN
NEW YORK (O)	TSN	FINCHER	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	TSN
LOS ANGELES	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	HYE-JA	ARESTRUP	WEAVER	-	TSN
INDIANA	TSN	NOLAN	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	-	TSN
SOUTHEASTERN	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	RUSH	STEINFELD	TKS	TSN
NEW YORK	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	BENING	RUFFALO	LEO	TKAAR	-
SAN FRANCISCO	TSN	FINCHER ARONOFSKY	FIRTH	WILLIAMS	HAWKES	WEAVER	TKS	TSN
TORONTO	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	LAWRENCE	HAMMER	STEINFELD	-	TSN
SAN DIEGO	WB	ARONOFSKY	FARRELL	LAWRENCE	HAWKES	MANVILLE	FOURLIONS	TSN
LAS VEGAS	TSN	FINCHER	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	ADAMS	-	TSN
DETROIT	TSN	BOYLE	FIRTH	LAWRENCE	BALE	ADAMS	-	-
DALLAS	TSN	FINCHER	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	TSN
HOUSTON	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	-	TSN
FLORIDA	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	INCEPTION	TSN
ST. LOUIS	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	TKS	TSN
CHICAGO	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
AUSTIN	BS	ARONOFSKY	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	BS	TSN
OKLAHOMA	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	PORTMAN	BALE	KUNIS	INCEPTION	TSN
UTAH	TSN 127	FINCHER NOLAN	FRANCO	PORTMAN	BALE	WEAVER	-	TSN
PHOENIX	TKS	NOLAN	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	INCEPTION	TSN
KANSAS	TSN	NOLAN	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
ONLINE	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
OHIO	INCEPTION	NOLAN	FRANCO	PORTMAN	RUSH	STEINFELD	INCEPTION	TSN
NSFC	TSN	FINCHER	EISENBERG	MEZZOGIORNO	RUSH	O.WILLIAMS	-	TSN
NORTH TEXAS	INCEPTION	NOLAN	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	-
VANCOUVER	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	LAWRENCE	BALE	STEINFELD	-	TSN
IOWA	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	-	-
BFCA	TSN	FINCHER	FIRTH	PORTMAN	BALE	LEO	TKS	TSN
HFPA	TSN TKAAR	FINCHER	FIRTH GIAMATTI	PORTMAN BENING	BALE	LEO		TSN
PGA	TKS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-