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1/13/2014

The Surprises, The Shockers...The Consensus

 
 
Although there are bound to be several surprises on Nominations Morning, these are the ones I am actually expecting...or more like the ones that would actually surprise me.

  1. August : Osage County sneaks in Best Picture and/or Best Adapted Screenplay. It would be a shocker considering the lukewarm critical reception and the somewhat lacking precursor support (SAG loved it, but considering the ineligible Oscar frontrunners, the WGA nod might not mean all that much). Then again, there is a viable argument out there that the film is considerably better than reviews suggest, mainly because those LA/NY publications couldn't help but compare the film to the source material, the play and that's why they couldn't appreciate the film for what it is : a remarkable adaptation that stands on its own. If Box Office is any indication, audiences seem to love it and if that's the case there is a good chance Oscar voters will, too...especially with four of their favorite people – Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, George Clooney, Harvey Weinstein – headlining the campaign.

  2. Saving Mr. Banks will appeal to the Academy much more than we thought and on top of expected nominations in Best Picture and Best Actress, it will also make the cut in Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor (probably Hanks, though Giamatti and his uberlikable role shouldn't be ruled out, either). Another film that could be more Academy-friendly than we gave it credit for, is Nebraska. Payne landing a Best Director nomination wouldn't surprise me all that much.

  3. Her receives a sole nomination in Best Original Screenplay. I think we have been generously overestimating the Academy's barely existent edge here. Hopefully I'm wrong but I have a feeling it will be too quirky and (post)modern for their taste.

  4. Leonardo DiCaprio receives a nomination for Best Actor. It wouldn't be a big surprise for sure, but considering how massive his competition is, he is definitely not a sure thing, either.

  5. Some kind of placement nonsense will take place. Most likely contender for that is Amy Adams who is prominently – and pretty succesfully – campaigned in lead for American Hustle but could end up in supporting for Her...or if the Academy really wants to mess with the system, they could nominate her for Hustle in supporting. The other questionable category placement of the season was Julia Roberts. It would be a great shock if she didn't get a nod in supporting...because she received one in lead.

  6. Margot Robbie or Jennifer Garner will come out of nowhere and take a slot in Best Supporting Actress. Robbie had a starmaking turn and has that hotbabeingenuefreshfacebreakthroughrole glow around her, meanwhile Garner's film is definitely high on voters' must-see lists due to the buzzy performances of her co-stars, so she could easily pull a Jackie Weaver. Then again, so could Sarah Paulson or Margo Martindale, they are less likely to shock though, because they also face internal competition (Lupita Nyong'O and Julia Roberts).

  7. After winning the Academy's scholarship a few years ago, Destin Cretton will be back with a nomination in Best Adapted Screenplay for Short Term 12. Also the Academy tends to nominate at least one Oscar newcomer in Best Actress (or at least the last time they didn't was around 20 years ago) and since they are probably more aware of this film (due to their scholarship) than most tiny little indies, Brie Larson is someone we should still watch out for.

  8. Considering Inside Llewyn Davis could be his fourth Best Picture nominee in three years (including two that went on to win), not to mention his scene-stealing part in another Oscar fave last year (Flight), I think there is a chance that John Goodman will come out of nowhere and land a nomination in Best Supporting Actor.

  9. The Academy loves Hugh Jackman. He was one of the most succesful hosts in recent years, he was a Best Actor nominee for the first time last year and he had a remarkably succesful 'One Night Only' Benefit Concert for the Motion Picture & Television Fund only a few months ago. He received rave reviews for Prisoners but the film's buzz died down quickly, now it is literally non-existent and the fact that Best Actor is ridiculously competitive this year, doesn't help, either. Then again...the Academy seems to LOVE Hugh Jackman so that rare kind of 'In the Valley of Elah' kind of nomination (Tommy Lee Jones) is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities. And speaking of people the Academy loves, watch out for George Clooney (Gravity) in supporting.

  10. Matthew McConaughey surprises in Best Supporting Actor...with his brief, cameoesque but nonetheless memorable turn in The Wolf of Wall Street.

(The Consensus is Based on the Previously Announced Awards & Nominations.) 
 



PICTURE


DIRECTOR
ACTRESS
ACTOR
S. ACTRESS
S. ACTOR
O. SCRIPT
A. SCRIPT

1
SLAVE

1
MCQUEEN BLANCHETT EJIOFOR NYONG'O FASSBENDER HUSTLE SLAVE

2
HUSTLE

2
RUSSELL BULLOCK MCCONAUGHEY LAWRENCE LETO HER PHILOMENA

3
GRAVITY
CONSENSUS
3
CUARÓN THOMPSON DERN ROBERTS ABDI NEBRASKA WOLF

4
PHILLIPS

4
GREENGRASS DENCH HANKS SQUIBB BRÜHL JASMINE PHILLIPS
CONSENSUS
5
WOLF

5
SCORSESE STREEP BALE WINFREY COOPER LLEWYN BEFORE

6
NEBRASKA

















7
HER

6
PAYNE ADAMS DICAPRIO HAWKINS GANDOLFINI GRAVITY AUGUST

8
DALLAS

7
JONZE LARSON REDFORD JOHANSSON HANKS DALLAS RUSH

9
BANKS
SURPRISES
8
COENS EXARCHOPOULOS WHITAKER ADAMS FORTE BANKS FROZEN

10
PHILOMENA

9
ALLEN WINSLET PHOENIX SPENCER HILL ENOUGH SPECTACULAR





10
FREARS DELPY ISAAC PAULSON COOGAN FRUITVALE SURVIVOR

11
LLEWYN

















12
JASMINE

11
HANCOCK LOUIS-DREYFUS ELBA GARNER CLOONEY SHORT INVISIBLE
SURPRISES
13
AUGUST

12
VALLÉE GERWIG JACKMAN ROBBIE MCCONAUGHEY MUD LABOR

14
BUTLER
SHOCKERS
13
HOWARD JONES JORDAN MARTINDALE C. COOPER BUTLER MANDELA

15
RUSH

14
LINKLATER BEJO FIENNES MULLIGAN GOODMAN PRISONERS WARMEST





15
COOGLER ROBERTS HAWKE SEYDOUX GIAMATTI PAST THIEF

16
FRUITVALE

















17
BEFORE
















SHOCKERS
18
ALL

















19
MUD

















20
PRISONERS

















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