- Jessica Chastain (The Help OR Take Shelter OR The Tree of Life)Considering her brilliant year, I hope she wins…for ‘The Help’ or something else ? The problem is she faces split votes and that could be damaging enough to knock her out of the top5...in my opinion, that would be a travesty.
- Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)She is an acting giant receiving rave reviews…she is a lock.
- Octavia Spencer (The Help)Remarkably likeable scenestealer in a BO-hit ? Lock...right ?
- Berenice Bejo (The Artist)If her film becomes the frontrunner, she could win…easily.
- Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)The ‘Kendrick’ of the season ?
- Carey Mulligan (Shame OR Drive)Even if her film isn’t very Academy-friendly, her work is acting at its best.
- Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)IF her film doesn’t disappoint…
- Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)Albert Nobbs might be too small for multiple acting nominations and - on paper - Glenn Close has more industry support.
- Emily Watson (War Horse)IF her film becomes the frontrunner…
- Naomi Watts (J.Edgar)
- Judi Dench (J.Edgar)They love to nominate her, but could it be all about DiCaprio ?
- Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)The surprise contender of the season ?
- Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris OR Contagion)IF her film becomes a top5 player .
- Kathy Bates (Midnight in Paris)Ditto…and even then – for obvious reasons - they could just go for the French girl.
- Chloe Moretz (Hugo)Will Hugo get ANY acting nominations ?
- Jodie Foster (Carnage)The fact that she will be campaigned here, helps a lot.
- Kate Winslet (Carnage OR Contagion)The fact that Foster will be campaigned here, weakens Winslet for sure.
- Cate Blanchett (Hanna)Her turn in ‘Hanna’ was outstanding and memorable, but it was probably ridiculously early for serious awards consideration.
- Elle Fanning (Super 8 OR We bought a Zoo)Could her breakout year earn her a nomination ?
- Scarlett Johansson (We bought a Zoo)IF her film becomes a bp-nominee AND a big hit, then MAYBE...probably not.
- Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)Will the Academy love the film enough to nominate its supporting lady ?
- Bryce Dallas Howard (The Help)Internal competition pretty much ends her campaign.
- Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia)Although her turn received great reviews, Kirsten Dunst seemingly stole the show.
- Robin Wright (Moneyball OR The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)Could she be in two best picture nominees in the same year and still NOT get her first nomination after all these years?
- Gwyneth Paltrow (Contagion)The best – and most memorable – female part in the film, but if the Academy didn't nominate Cotillard for 'Inception', they probably won't nominate Paltrow for 'Contagion'.
Viola Davis (The Help)
Seems highly unlikely at the moment, although she could turn up in this category for 'Extremely loud and Incredibly Close'.
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
Now that she and her film officially received excellent US-reviews, she might be back in the game but she might be too late...could that result a category change ? No...at least not according to the film's FYC-ads.
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
It doesn't help that the actress who originated Mara's iconic role, did NOT get a nomination last year, but even without the Rapace-factor, she might be too late in the game, and if that's the case, Sony could just claim her screentime is rather limited in the trilogy's first chapter, so she might as well go supporting.
OUT (for now)
Maggie Smith (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II)
IF the film becomes the frontrunner...
Helena Bonham Carter (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II)
Julia Ormond (My Week with Marilyn)
Well, even if the screentime is limited (=borderline cameoesque), the role is iconic.
Allison Janney (The Help)
Internal competition basically cancels her out.
Sissy Spacek (The Help)
Joely Richardson (The Girl with the Dragon Tatttoo)
Could there be a supporting lady here, who surprisingly ends up in the top5 ?
Moe Gorpendal (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Melanie Laurent (Beginners)
Although the film seems to have a tiny comeback, the buzz is still all about Plummer and maybe the screenplay.
Amy Ryan (Win Win)
Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March)
Had the film received slightly better reviews, she could be looking at her 4th nomination.
Anna Kendrick (50 / 50)
Although it is highly unlikely she will even come close this year, a critically acclaimed indie hit always looks good on a resume.
Julianne Moore (Crazy Stupid Love)
After NOT getting nominations for 'A Single Man' and 'The Kids are all right', she probably won't be a contender now when she is in a broad romantic comedy, but still...she gave a great performance...as always.
Olivia Wilde (Butter)
Early word is great, but the Weinsteins seem to have their hands full, so 'Butter' probably won't be on their minds any time soon.
Elizabeth Reaser (Young Adult)
The film seems to be all about Charlize Theron.