2011 - Best Supporting Actress

  POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
   Could this be her year ? I don't know, what I DO know that Eastwood-films usually do remarkably well in the acting categories. Add Watts's incredible talent, and you might just have a winner.
2. Judi Dench (J. Edgar OR Jane Eyre OR My Week with Marilyn)
   As always, she is automatically a contender whether she is playing a famous queen...or a wheelchair, it doesn't really matter...she is THAT good. Her best shot at this is Eastwood's film this year, the question is : could two ladies get in from the same film and if not, who will get the boot ?
3. Viola Davis (The Help)
   Apparently the film has three leads, but IF it becomes a critical hit, I'm sure  they will  'commit' some kind of category fraud and campaign Stone in the lead category, the others in supporting. The good news is that the outstanding Viola Davis could win this...IF the films turns out to be good.
4. Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
   If the film will be as great as it should be based on the source material and the people involved, she could have the grateful part of a widowed single mother. She is now a Best Actress winner, so she kind of has the status to pull off a supporting nomination without a hitch...we'll see. There are still a few who are pissed about her recent victory therefore the Academy might give her a follow-up nomination just to silence the naysayers and justify their previous decision.
5. Julia Ormond (My Week with Marilyn)
   She is ridiculously under the radar at the moment although she is silently experiencing a carreer high artistically: she has just won an Emmy for a highly acclaimed HBO-film (Temple Grandin), recently worked with David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Steven Soderbergh (Che), David Lynch (Inland Empire) and now plays the iconic role of Vivien Leigh. IF her screentime isn't cameoesque AND she nails it, she could be the 'comeback kid' of the season. One thing is for certain : this 90s It-girl is on her way back to the top...I hope.
6. Scarlett Johansson (We bought a Zoo)
   She was supposed to become an Academy-darling a long time ago, but somehow she had been overlooked so far despite 4 Golden Globe nominations, 2 BAFTA nominatons(she won one for Lost in Translation). She also worked with directors like Robert Redford (The Horse Whisperer), Joel and Ethan Coen (The Man who wasn't there), Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation), Woody Allen (Match Point, Scoop, Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Brian de Palma (Black Dahlia), Christopher Nolan (The Prestige), Cameron Crowe (this year's We bought a Zoo), Joss Whedon (next year's The Avengers) AND starred in low-profile critical darlings like Ghost World, The Girl with a Pearl Earring and In Good Company..oh, and she is still just 26 years old. Bottom line : despite her young age, she should be considered someone who paid her dues so if she hits this one out of the park, she should be more than capable of landing that first nomination she should have received years ago.
7. Emily Watson (War Horse)
   If the film is a hit with Academy members – and let's face it, it probably will be – this highly acclaimed British lady might just receive her third nomination...and maybe even her first win. It is the Academy's popular method to make former Best Actress nominees settle with a supporting Oscar...just ask Penelope Cruz, Cate Blanchett or Renée Zellweger!
8. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life OR Coriolanus OR Take Shelter)
   The breakthrough contender of the season ? It wouldn't be that surprising considering she is in 7 (!) films this year : The Debt, Take Shelter, Coriolanus, The Tree of Life, The Help, Wilde Salome, The Fields...and if for some reason, The Wettest County in the World gets a 2011-release date, she has an 8^th , as well. Strangely enough most of these films are actually considered Awards-contenders, so she might get close, she only has to watch out for two  potentially damaging factors : overpresentation and split votes.
9. Robin Wright (Moneyball OR The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
   I don't know how baity these roles are, but she has been doing solid work for two decades now and I think sooner or later she WILL get that crucial first nomination. The question is WHEN ?
10. Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris OR Contagion)
    Since her glorious victory, she has been up for a second nomination for Nine, Public Enemies and Inception, but the Academy failed to take notice. Now she is in Woody Allen's best film in years and since she is the only French member of the cast, she might have the edge over the others considering the film's theme and location. Considering she always delivers, her turn in Contagion shouldn't be underestimated, either.

POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES

11. Elle Fanning (We bought a Zoo OR Super 8)
    She was the best thing in 'Somewhere' last year and if Cameron Crowe delivers, she could easily find herself in the middle of this year's Awards Season. Could she pull it off ?
12. Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
    Payne is very good with supporting actresses (Virginia Madsen, Kathy Bates, Reese Witherspoon), so there is a good chance he could make Woodley shine, as well.
13. Moa Garpendal (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
    She plays the crucial part of young Harriet Vanger, and though her screentime will be probably limited, the character is basically in cult status, so who knows, she could go far with it. Although internal competition is definitely not her friend.
14. Nichola Burley (Wuthering Heights)
    It will all come down to Venice...if early word is stellar, suddenly anyone involved will be a contender (even if not necessarily strong ones).

POTENTIAL OSCAR-NEWCOMERS

16. Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
    Despite her scandals, she IS a remarkably good actress so if the role is baity enough, she could get in...although her co-star, Academy-darling Marisa Tomei could weaken her chances.
17. Octavia Spencer (The Help)
    Here's the deal : although the book – and the film – is filled with great female characters, the one Spencer plays – Minny – is special. Why ? Spencer – who is Kathryn Stockett's childhood friend, you know the WRITER of the novel – actually inspired this character and  Minny is kind of a scene-stealer in the book, so she could easily be the standout in the film., as well Unfortunately the summer release date and internal competition are two damaging factors hard to overcome.
18. Bryce Dallas Howard (The Help)
    She has her moments and she plays the villain in this - that's always a great challenge for an actor - but once again the film might come out too early and even if that wouldn't be an issue in the long run, Davis, Tyson and Spencer could still outshine her.
19. Chloe Moretz (Hugo Cabret)
    She could be lead, I don't know much about the project. I consider her here because of her tender age, youngsters rarely get lead nominations but they always have a fair chance in the supporting category.
20. Joely Richardson (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
    I might be wrong, but I think she'll play the older version of that crucial character I don't want to name because that could be a major spoiler. I might be completely overestimating this film in every category, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see. how it goes On paper it could be too violent/edgy for the Academy but last year's Fincher-snub helps its case considerably in my opinion.
21. Emily Mortimer (Hugo Cabret)
    She is a decent character actress but once again, I don't know anything about her role. IF it is challenging enough, she might have a shot.
22. Rachel McAdams (Midnight in Paris)
    She is playing a rather unlikable character and the film is filled with great female supporting turns so this will be probably not the year of her first nomination. Having said that, a critically acclaimed (potential) best picture nominee (Midnight in Paris) will look rather good on her resume WHEN she will be a viable contender...and since she is the lead in Malick's mysterious romance that will be released next year, she might be closer to this than we think.
23. Judy Greer (The Descendants)
    It looks like a Clooney-show but there is always room for a scene-stealer. For some reason, I don't think that will be the case here.
24. Elizabeth Reaser (Young Adult)
    The film is a big question mark for me : on paper it looks like a potentially well-executed romantic comedy and the Academy is not big on those BUT it's Jason Reitman and his comedies usually manage to resonate with the voters. Even if it will be a player, for now I think Theron is the only one who could have a viable shot at this...although Reaser plays the often grateful 'wife' part so who knows ?
25. Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
    Internal competition is insanely tough in this case.
26. Kirsten Dunst (On the Road)
    Ditto.
27. Elisabeth Moss (On the Road)
    Ditto.
28. Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia)
    I've read reviews that single her out as THE standout but considering Dunst is the bigger name and she has just won the Cannes Best Actress award, she might be overshadowed in the end.
29. Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs)
    Playing a supporting part next to Glenn Close isn't necessarily a good thing because Close will most certainly hit it out of the park and make even good to great performances look mediocre compared to her. Wasikowska could be a stronger contender in the lead category IF Focus won't abandon the critically acclaimed Jane Eyre and will give it an Oscar-push/campaign. The question will be whether the studio will campaign for the other Best Actress contenders, as well : Saoirse Ronan (Hanna) received rave reviews and Anne Hathaway (One Day) is a movie star playing a beloved character directed by Lone Scherfig...just saying.
30. Olivia Wilde (In Time)
    She hasn't wowed me yet, but I like surprises...and playing the 30-year old Justin Timberlake's mother at the age of 27, might do the trick. Only the Academy wouldn't have a problem with sci-fi-s...

POTENTIAL OSCAR-COMEBACKS

31. Kathy Bates (Midnight in Paris)
    Her turn received rave reviews and she IS an Academy-favourite, so this doesn't sound THAT far-fetched to me. It could happen...easily.
32. Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March)
    She is one of the most consistent character actresses in Hollywood so she might get another nomination for Clooney's latest.
33. Kate Winslet (Contagion)
    She is probably back to the race 'Winslet-style' : she is up against herself AGAIN. Carnage sounds more like the Academy's cup of tea, but she is one of those actresses who never disappoint, so she could even get two nominations, who knows ? The question is : is she getting a lead campaign for either of these films or not ?
34. Gwyneth Paltrow (Contagion)
    Thanks to Iron Man, Glee and the CMA, she is once again popular and more importantly relevant...and that's always a plus when it comes to a potential Awards-campaign.
35. Judy Davis (The Eye of the Storm)
    She should have won years ago, this role once again sounds like one she could do wonders to. But will it be big enough for mainstream recognition ? This is the question.
36. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus OR Anonymous OR The Whistleblower)
    She could make an Oscar-comeback this year with Coriolanus for which she received rave reviews...but then again, she is Vanessa 'acting giant' Redgrave, so rave reviews are pretty much a given in her case.
37. Carey Mulligan (Drive OR Shame)
    For some reason I think both her 2011-roles will be considered supporting and the good news, that a former Best Actress nominee/winner always has the edge over others here, so she could get in easily IF Shame becomes a critical darling.
38. Amy Adams (On the Road)
    Back to the game so soon ? Considering she received 3 nominations in this category within 5 years, it wouldn't be that surprising and even though internal competition hasn't hurt her yet (Doubt, The Fighter), this time around it might be harder than usually to overcome.
39. Anna Kendrick (50 / 50)
    She was fantastic in 'Up in the Air' and there is a chance she will be a scene-stealer in this one, so I guess we'll just have to wait for the reviews .
40. Cicely Tyson (The Help)
    That first picture from the film featuring her and a little girl is remarkably powerful in my opinion and she IS a veteran AND a former nominee. Having said that, her part will be probably very small and internal competition is incredibly tough in this case. Although she could be the heart of the movie and that would definitely help her case considerably.
41. Cate Blanchett (Hanna)
    She is a great actress, she is automatically in consideration, she was the villain and boy, what a villain ! She hit it out of the park and critics took notice...the question is : will the Academy do the same ?
42. Jane Fonda (Peace, Love and Misunderstanding)
    Some decent early word on this one would be definitely welcome but even without that, 'the hippie grandmother' sounds like a scene-stealing role tailor-made for Jane Fonda.
43. Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
    I think it will be a Glenn Close-show and there won't be room for anyone else...I could be wrong, we'll see...

COULD BE LEAD

43. Jodie Foster (Carnage)
    Since she is remarkably consistent and always good to great, she automatically gets the early vote of confidence. On paper she is a co-lead but in reality, one of the female co-leads could end up in the supporting category. Common wisdom says the studio will play favourites and downgrade one of them in order to secure nominations for both.
44. Kate Winslet (Carnage)
    Ditto.
45. Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
    At the moment it's not clear  whether she will get a lead or a supporting campaign. Based on recent precedent (The King's Speech), when a film has two strong male leads, the female lead gets the supporting treatment. For what it's worth, I'm sure she will be great as always.
46. Michelle Williams (Meek's Cutoff)
    I think her Marilyn Monroe-biopic will make voters forget about Meek's Cutoff.
47. Amanda Seyfried (In Time)
    I'm not familiar with the plot but I'm vaguely familiar with the Academy's habits : and sci-fi-s and Oscar-newcomers don't mix well when it comes to voting.
48. Abbie Cornish (W.E.)
    The film is a big question mark for me.
49. Andrea Riseborough (W.E.)
    Ditto.
50. Catherine Keener (Maladies)
    The role looks baity enough on paper, the problem is the film is so ridiculously under the radar, that I'm not even sure it could become a contender in this year's race.

OUT (for now)

Frances McDormand (This must be the place) 
Stephanie Szostak (We bought a Zoo) 
Kathryn Morris (Moneyball)
Monica Bellucci (The Whistleblower) 
Amy Ryan (Win Win)

Allison Janney (The Help)
Sissy Spacek (The Help)  
Jennifer Lawrence (X-Men : First Class OR The Beaver)

Marisa Paredes (The Skin I live in )

Blanca Suarez (The Skin I live in)

Sally Hawkins (Jane Eyre)

Romola Garai (One Day)

Patricia Clarkson (One Day)

Melanie Laurent (Beginners)

Emma Watson (My Week with Marilyn)

Maggie Smith (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II)

Helena Bonham Carter (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II)