2011 - Best Actor

POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. Leonardo DiCaprio (J.Edgar)
   I think this will be finally his year...
2. George Clooney (The Descendants)
   Clooney is an Academy-favourite, so is Payne therefore it seems almost obligatory to predict him in the top5.
3. Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
   Although there is a chance he and his co-lead will cancel each other out, if Cronenberg once again delivers, there will be room for him...and who knows, maybe even for both of them.
4. Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
   He has been around for a while and though the public mostly knows him as the new James Bond, he has delivered some fine performances over the years (Road to Perdition, The Mother, Layer Cake, Infamous), as well so if Fincher's version of the Swedish phenomenon will turn out to be his ticket to the Kodak, we shouldn't be THAT surprised.
5. Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method OR Jane Eyre OR Shame)
   He is having an insanely strong year and after impressive turns in Hunger and Fish Tank, I must say, he definitely deserves it : he started out with rave reviews in a period romance (Jane Eyre), he continued with a critically acclaimed tentpole (X-Men : First Class) for which he once again received some good ink and he still has Soderbergh's latest (Haywire), his Hunger-reunion (Shame) and Cronenberg's Freud/Jung-biopic (A Dangerous Method) coming out this year. If all these won't pique the Academy's interest, there isn't much else for him to do...I mean what ELSE could he do ? Learn to fly ?
6. Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March OR Drive)
   The 'Tilda Swinton' of actors, although this year could be different because he gave in and made a promising studio comedy that could raise his profile considerably. Hopefully after recent spectacular snubs (Lars and the real girl, Blue Valentine), he will get his second nomination now...IF he gives a performance that strong...but then again, he ALWAYS does.
7. Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
   The premise is promising although his (supporting?) turn in The Tree of Life could easily overshadow this one.
8. Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary)
   It's Johnny Depp so he is automatically a contender...having said that, the several delays don't bode well for the film.
9. Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus)
   Fiennes has been long overdue for a third nomination (Quiz Show, The End of the Affair, Onegin, Sunshine, Spider, The Constant Gardener, Harry Potter, In Bruges, The Duchess, The Reader), we shall see whether directing himself in a critically acclaimed Shakespeare-reimagination, will do the trick or not.
10. Jim Sturgess (One Day)
    The source material is great, the role is very Oscar-friendly (20 years timespan, drug addiction etc.) and he is perfect for it on paper. If Lone Scherfig proves that she isn't a one-trick-pony, he might have a shot at this.

POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCES

11. Jeremy Irvine (War Horse)
    If the film will emerge as a strong player, he could easily get in, even though he is completely unknown. For what it's worth, the role has 'starmaking turn' written all over it.
12. Thomas Horn (Extemely Loud and Incredibly Close)
    Ditto.
13. Asa Butterfield (Hugo Cabret)
    Ditto.
14. Dominic Cooper (The Devil's Double)
    He could do wonders to this role...I mean THESE roles although it might not be the Academy's cup of tea.
15. James Howson (Wuthering Heights)
    I must say I have been considering Heathcliff one of the most fascinating characters for a long time now and for a young actor, it is definitely a dream role. This time around the brilliant Andrea Arnold decided to go back to the roots and actually cast an age-appropriate dark-skinned actor in the role and in my eyes, that fierce authenticity already gives this version the edge over others where the part was played by white thirtysomethings. He is so ridiculously under the radar at the moment that he might just be the big breakthrough of the year...we'll see.
16. Eddie Redmayne (My Week with Marilyn)
    I'm majorly confused when it comes to this film's acting categories : I've read somewhere that Williams doesn't have that much screentime so she could pass for supporting (not gonna happen), Branagh is apparently outstanding but he could be also 'just' a supporting player...but who is the lead then ? Recent Tony-winner, Redmayne is the best bet at the moment, although I wouldn't be surprised by ANY scenarios. My guess is they'll campaign Williams and Redmayne in the lead categories and Branagh in supporting...although latter is a 'name' and that could give him the edge over his unknown co-star and THAT could result to a category switch...oh, the Awards politics...
17. Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy)
    Excellent early word from Sundance but the film will be probably too small in the end.
18. Sam Riley (On the Road)
    The source material is interesting and the role is great, but we need some footage before we can consider him seriously...and by that, I mean before we can consider considering him seriously.
19. Justin Timberlake (In Time)
    He was decent in The Social Network and has two potential summer hits on his hands BUT it is a sci-fi and he is still Justin „singerturnedactor” Timberlake. If he gives a truly great performance, hopefully the Academy can ignore these seemingly damaging factors.
20. Henry Hooper (Restless)
    Cannes-verdict is that he is good, but his film isn't. Bottom line : he is out.

POTENTIAL OSCAR-NEWCOMERS

21. Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
    The Cannes-win put him on the map and if the film will be a hit in the US and the Academy falls in love with it, he could become one of those rare Cannes-winners who could secure an Oscar nomination in the end. We'll see...
22. Michael Sheen (Beautiful Boy)
    If there is any justice, he will get his first nomination sooner rather than later and this could be definitely 'it'.
23. Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
    Ditto.
24. Ewan McGregor (Beginners OR The Impossible OR Salmon Fishing in Yemen)
    He is not only incredibly versatile (Trainspotting, Little Voice, Star Wars, Moulin Rouge!, Black Hawk Down, Big Fish, Young Adam, The Ghost Writer, I love you Philip Morris), he is very likable too. Frankly I'm surprised he hasn't received his first nomination yet. Although there is not much info on The Impossible and Salmon Fishing in Yemen, Beginners is receiving rave-reviews at the moment.
25. Joseph Gordon-Lewitt (50/50)
    One of the best actors of his generation and this bittersweet part sounds tailor-made for the Academy...we'll see whether they'll take notice.
26. Antonio Banderas (The Skin I live in)
    His Almódovar-reunion got some good ink in Cannes and it is controversial enough to get publicity once it is released in the US. Could that be enough ?
27. Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)
    The film is outstandingly well-received so he might have a tiny shot, but that probably won't translate into Academy-love...the HFPA on the other hand could even award him in the comedy section.
28. Demián Bichir (A Better Life)
    Everybody was raving about him out of Sundance, but the film has a summer release date and looks way too small for mainstream recognition. Although Winter's Bone could pull it off last year...
29. Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
    Contanstly under the radar although he IS an incredible actor. Having said that, this movie will be probably too low-profile for the Awards-season.
30. Robert Pattinson (Bel Ami)
    Frankly he is only listed here because Maupassant's character, Georges Duroy is completely outstanding so it definitely has a great performance in it...the question is could Pattinson do it justice ?
31. Paul Rudd (Our Idiot Brother)
    He is very consistent, always good BUT rarely great, definitely not 'Oscar-great'...maybe HFPA ?
32. Gerard Butler (Machine Gun Preacher)
    Marc Forster, that's a plus...still no early word, that's a minus.
33. Rhys Ifans (Anonymous)
    He is a good enough actor to pull off a great part, I'm only skeptical because of the director, Roland 'catastrophy' Emmerich. Who knows, maybe he could surprise us all ?
34. Sam Shepard (Blackthorne)
    Good early word but he is criminally under the radar at the moment.
35. James McAvoy (The Conspirator)
    He received some good ink once again but the film isn't strong enough to back him up so for the 4^th time (The Last King of Scotland, Atonement, The Last Station), he will be snubbed despite critical acclaim. The good news that he has two hits (Gnomeo and Juliet, X-Men : First Class) this year, so next time he wows critics, he might just be considered a 'movie star'...and that ALWAYS helps.

POTENTIAL OSCAR-COMEBACKS

36. Matt Damon (We bought a Zoo OR Contagion)
    I definitely think he could become a top5 player for We bought a Zoo, I just need some solid early word first because Crowe has been more miss than hit lately.
37. Sean Penn (This must be the place)
    The role is ridiculously Academy-friendly (a bored, retired rock star sets out to find his father's executioner, an ex-Nazi war criminal) and he IS Sean Penn...
38. Christoph Waltz (Carnage)
    This will be a tough one when it will come to the acting categories : so the film has 4 leads...will they compete against each other and risk canceling each other out OR there will be a 'lead couple' and a 'supporting couple' ? If they go the second route, that could result 4 (!) acting nominations in 4 different categories...that hasn't happened in a while so I really don't think the studio could resist the option of downgrading a pair of their leads in order to achieve that or at least to have a shot at achieving that.
39. John C. Reilly (Carnage)
    Ditto.
40. Mel Gibson (The Beaver)
    Critics agree that this might be his best performance to date but the early release date is a damaging factor hard to overcome and considering the Box Office, he clearly hasn't been forgiven just yet.
41. Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
    With a more Academy-friendly release date this could have been „the little film that could” of the season and Giamatti could have been a strong contender, as well...
42. James Franco (Maladies OR The Broken Tower)
    Both roles sound baity on paper but there is barely any info on either, so I guess we should wait and see whether these are going anywhere or not.
43. Tom Hanks (Larry Crowne)
    Sounds too light for the Academy, but they do love Hanks, so who knows?

COULD BE SUPPORTING

44. Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
    Early word is excellent, so I think he will be strong in either way. IF he will be campaigned lead, I can definitely see him in the top5...IF he will be campaigned in the supporting category, I can definitely see him WIN !
45. Colin Firth (Tinker, Tailor Soldier, Spy)
    It sounds like Oldman's show, but there could be enough goodwill from last year for him to land a supporting nomination IF he won't be upgraded to co-lead due to his recent success.
46. Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)
    There is a chance he will be campaigned in the lead category, but common wisdom says it will be a Streep-show and there will be only supporting players around her.
47. Patrick Wilson (Young Adult)
    Wilson has done some solid work (Hard Candy, Little Children, Evening) but he has failed to wow us so far (although he was great in Angels in America). Could Reitman be the answer to his Oscar-dreams ? We'll see...
48. Geoffrey Rush (The Eye of the Storm)
    The source material is promising, but the lack of buzz is not.
49. John C. Reilly (We need to talk about Kevin)
    Cannes loved the film but this performance is probably overshadowed by Swinton and his considerably bigger role in Carnage.
50. Kevin Kline (Darling Companion)
    He is a great actor, but this probably won't be released in 2011, although it is already in post-production.