2011 - Best Actress

POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
   I simply cannot see her losing this time around PERIOD
2. Meryl Streep (Margaret Thatcher)
   It will be definitely a tough call, but all in all, Close and Streep are highly acclaimed contemporaries, latter has already won twice, former has never won before. Having said that, this will be definitely her 'Queen' and she WILL nail it. The big question is what people want to see MORE : Meryl winning her long-overdue third OR Close FINALLY winning her first.
3. Michelle Williams (My week with Marylin)
   Playing one of the most iconic actresses of all time is 'Oscary' enough BUT having the Weinsteins in her corner, pretty much seals deal as far as nominations go. It would be a shock if she wouldn't get in considering these two very convincing factors.
4. Helen Mirren (The Door)
   I have absolutely no doubt that she will do wonders to this brilliant role, the only question remains : will the film have the momentum to get her traction ?
5. Anne Hathaway (One Day)
   Could Lone Scherfig do it again ? Probably and Anne Hathaway is definitely talented enough to pull off a wonderful performance just like the one Carey Mulligan delivered two years ago. The summer release date is a huge problem, although it is worth noting that the studio (Focus Features) did get a lead actress nomination last year for a summer release...
6. Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
   At the moment it's not clear  whether she will get a lead or a supporting campaign, based on recent precedent (The King's Speech), when a film has two strong male leads, the female lead gets the supporting treatment. For what it's worth, I'm sure she will be great as always.
7. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
   We don't know much about the film, so it could go either way. I'm not sure the role is showy enough to fight off the considerable competition. We'll see.
8. Charlotte Rampling (The Eye of the Storm)
   A career-nomination has been long-overdue and this role seems like 'the one' but even if it is, the film could still turn out to be too small to recognize.
9. Kate Winslet (Carnage / Contagion)
   Both performances could end up in the supporting category, but since she is remarkably consistent and always good to great, she automatically gets the early vote of confidence. Even if former film doesn't even have a release date yet and latter might not be the Academy's cup of tea.
10. Jodie Foster (Carnage / The Beaver)
    Ditto...

POTENTIAL OSCAR-NEWCOMERS

11. Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre OR Restless)
    Considering she DID have a perfect 'pre-Oscar year' (smash-hit + bp-nominee) AND has two baity lead roles this year, it wouldn't be that much of a suprise if she became the 'newcomer' in the category.
12. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
    Unfortunately I have to confess, I am probably one of the very few who wasn't impressed with her cameoesque supporting turn in one of the best films of last year AND honestly, I cannot see how she could top Noomi Rapace's VERY recent, iconic work. And if Rapace didn't get a nomination...
13. Kaya Scodelario (Wuthering Heights)
    She is definitely under the radar right now but I still  think she could emerge as the it-girl of the season overnight. I trust Andrea Arnold's instincts.
14. Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene / Silent House)
    I think it will be too 'indie' in the end and there ARE a lot of young actresses in the mix this year. But then again,  I could be completely wrong.
15. Emma Stone (The Help)
    Hmm...the Easy A-exposure and the 'Oscary' source material might just be enough to get her in the top5. However, the relatively early release date (August) and the very strong competition will be still hard to overcome.
16. Jessica Chastain (Wilde Salome OR Take Shelter)
    Although she does have obvious lead roles this year, I think her best shot at a nomination is in the supporting category for The Tree of Life.
17. Maria Bello (Beautiful Boy)
    Unfortunately it will be a classic 'Mother and Child' : too late in the year of the film's festival premiere, but way too early next year. Early peak-syndrome. Having said that, I would be extemely happy if she could still get in, she has been robbed (at least) twice already (The Cooler, The History of Violence).
18. Emily Blunt (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen)
    I know absolutely nothing about this film BUT the short premise IS promising and the director is the go-to-guy when you want a typical 'Oscar-film' (The Cider House Rules, Chocolat). She was ridiculously close TWICE, this might just be the year of her first nomination.
19. Scarlett Johansson (We bought a Zoo)
    After a stunning breakthrough year, things cooled down considerably. I firmly believe several of her performances should have garnered her Oscar-nominations (Lost in Translation, The Girl with a Pearl Earring, Match Point), so hopefully Cameron Crowe has his mojo back and Johansson will make a comeback to the Awards-scene.
20. Michelle Monaghan (Machine Gun Preacher)
    Marc Forster DID direct a winner of this category, so she definitely has a shot (especially because she IS capable of delivering a powerful performance (Trucker) ), but the film is very under the radar at the moment. If it picks up steam, anything could happen...
21. Abbie Cornish (W.E.)
    She should be definitely an Oscar-nominee today, but for some reason (Madonna directing?), I don't see it this time around and even if the films turns out to be good to great, she isn't playing the flashier role (the title character) and that could be a problem.
22. Andrea Riseborough (W.E.)
    Could she pull it off ?
23. Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
    Once hailed as one of the most promising young actresses of her generation. The talent is definitely there, hopefully she is back to quality projects for good.
24. Rachel McAdams (Midnight in Paris)
    Based on the trailer, this just seems too 'light'. The good news is that she has a baity Malick-film next year and if she nails that, she could be much higher on the list in 2012.
25. Amanda Seyfried (Now)
    Sci-fi-s and Oscar-newcomers don't mix well.

OSCAR-COMEBACKS

26. Tilda Swinton (We need to talk about Kevin)
    Another remarkably competitive year for actresses, another potentially brilliant Swinton-performance. Unfortunately, considering the Academy snubbed her for Julia (I still didn't forgive that one) AND I am Love, they might be over her for now. We'll see.
27. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
    She is a very consistent actress and this role seems perfect for her. Having said that, the film is criminally under the radar at the moment, so we just have to wait and see where this will go.
28. Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
    I sense a classic case of 'early peak-syndrome'. Hopefully, I'm wrong.
29. Diane Keaton (Darling Companion)
    It is supposed to come out in 2012, but is already in post-production....hmm.
30. Emily Watson (Oranges and Sunshine)
    It will be probably too small to survive a long season, but on the bright side, she could get a nomination in the supporting category for War Horse.
31. Faye Dunaway (Master Class)
    I'm torn...everything about this screams Oscar but for some reason I think it will be awful. Strange, I know.
32. Saoirse Ronan (Hanna OR Violet and Daisy)
    As expected, she is getting rave reviews at the moment, but the genre and the early release date probably killed her Awards-prospects. On paper, she could emerge as a strong contender OR get the precursors for Violet and Daisy, but for now, I think that's highly unlikely.
33. Julia Roberts (Larry Crowne)
    Based on the trailer, the film will be too light for the Academy, but it might be just light enough for the Golden Globe's comedy categories.
34. Catherine Keener (Peace, Love and Misunderstanding)
    The film is a big question mark at the moment, but Keener is always good so I guess it will come down to the screenplay...if it is a good one, acting nominations could happen.
35. Juliette Binoche (Copie Conforme / Sponsoring)
    Binoche hasn't been in the Oscar-game since Chocolat and frankly, this doesn't seem like her year, either. Good news is that she is in the very privileged situation that she doesn't need to bother with this anymore : she is a highly acclaimed international movie star PERIOD.
36. Ellen Page (Freeheld)
    Hmm...no. Let me rephrase that : PROBABLY no. She needs a meaty lead role again.
37. Samantha Morton (Banking on Mr. Toad)
    Considering her Academy-track record, she could turn up basically anytime, she didn't exactly need the precursors on the last two occasions, either.
38. Carey Mulligan (Shame)
    It could turn out to be a supporting part, she can do no wrong in my eyes, so I think she will nail this one, too, just like 'An Education' and 'Never let me go' (criminally overlooked film, by the way)
39. Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
    Maggie Smith back in the lead race ? I would love to see that happen.
40. Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
    Dame Judi Dench reunited with John Madden who directed her Oscar-winning performance in Shakespeare in Love ? Promising.

COULD BE SUPPORTING

41. Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
    I think she will get the 'supporting wife' treatment Jennifer Connelly-style. The good news ? Jennifer Connelly won.
42. Viola Davis (The Help)
    It will be argued that she is an equal co-lead, but in the end, I think she will be a supporting player. The co-lead thing doesn't work Oscar-wise and if they have to pick one lead, that's Skeeter (Emma Stone). On the other hand, after her stunning work in 'Doubt', she is at least semi-due...and this is a very baity, very Oscary project.
43. Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris / Contagion)
    Is she a Cruz-like scene-stealer in 'Paris' ? Who knows ? Is she a lead or a supporting in the star-studded 'Contagion' ? Who knows ? The only thing I DO know, that she should have been nominated for Inception and she was the best thing in Public Enemies AND Nine.
44. Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
    I'm fairly certain she will get the supporting treatment, I would love too see her Oscar-comeback.
45. Chloe Moretz (Hugo Cabret)
    Children rarely get lead campaigns, even if they ARE the leads (Hailee Steinfeld, Abigail Breslin etc.). Having said that, Chloe Moretz is a promising talent who already proved herself unlike my examples at the time of their nominations, so she MIGHT be able to break the youngsters' supporting treatment...MIGHT.
46. Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March)
    She has been doing some wonderful work in the past few years, hopefully she will score another nomination sooner or later.
47. Robin Wright (The Conspirator OR Moneyball)
    Although The Conspirator is way too early, Moneyball is just on time. Both are rather baity, so a first nomination might just happen FINALLY. Probably for Moneyball...probably in the supporting category.
48. Jane Fonda (Peace, Love and Misunderstanding)
    The role of a hippie grandmother sounds like a scene-stealer to me. The question is : who is the lead ? The mother or the daughter ?
49. Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
    She needs a follow-up nomination to prove her win wasn't a fluke and she isn't a one-trick-pony. I guess it's a good thing she is putting her victory to good use : Daldry, then Cuaron ? Impressive.
50. Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
    Although Twilight made her rich and famous, it also became a barrier to overcome when it comes to serious acclaim. I think she gave excellent performances last year (The Runaways, Welcome to the Rileys), so the talent is there, hopefully people will start taking her seriously in the near future.