2011 - Best Picture I.

POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. War Horse
   Steven Spielberg is directing an emotional war movie...case closed. It would be an absolute shock if War Horse didn't make the top10. Actually, I think it could emerge as the one to beat. Time will tell.
2. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
   I must say I was rather skeptical about this one (remaking a one-year-old film?) and even though David Fincher is an excellent director, I still wasn't convinced. Then he lost the Oscar...politics, politics, politics. Let's just say it could be very rewarding to be the previous year's runner-up...just ask Colin Firth!
3. The Tree of Life
   I think it could be not only the year's best film, but potentially one of the very best PERIOD. The question is : will the Academy get it AND remember it ? It is always tough to overcome an early release date.
4. Hugo Cabret
   It's Scorsese, so obviously the film is automatically a contender. Add the baity story based on a bestseller, a Thanksgiving- release date and who knows...you might just have the winner.
5. J. Edgar
   Eastwood + Dicaprio = Oscar Gold ? Probably. IF the film gets a 2011-release date (precedent backs up this scenario considering Eastwood doesn't spend much time on post-production), Leonardo DiCaprio – playing this remarkably baity role – will be probably the clear frontrunner in the Best Actor category.
6. The Descendants
   The Academy loves Alexander Payne. The Academy loves George Clooney. The Academy will love The Descendants.
7. A Dangerous Method
   Usually David Cronenberg is a tough sell Oscar-wise, but this time around he is directing a period piece/biopic, so after all the snubs, it could be finally the year of his first Academy Award nomination. And if that happens, the film is definitely in in the 10-slot system.
8. Carnage
   The adaptation of a Tony-award winning play about two married couples played by 3 Oscar-winners and an Oscar-nominee, directed by Roman Polanski. Wow...now I'm starting to feel like I am already undestimating it. The 2011-release date isn't confirmed in this case, either BUT Jodie Foster stated in an interview that a Venice-premiere is a possibility...and the Venice Film Festival is in August/September...
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
   It is becoming a pattern, I know, but this film isn't confirmed for this year either, although the director (Stephen Daldry) would like to release it in time for the 10th anniversary of 9/11. Otherwise, Daldry is 3/3 (Billy Elliot, The Hours, The Reader) in the Best Director-category and if he keeps it up, there is no way that in a 10-slot system the film of one of the 5 bd-nominees doesn't make the top10.
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
    It might sound like a wild suggestion and then again, it might sound like a perfectly logical one. The end of the biggest franchise of all time has come and considering it was very consistent with critics and audiences, a best picture nomination could easily happen. Obviously I'm not expecting a franchise-ending Oscar-sweep 'LOTR-style', but a nominaton isn't that far-fetched and would be a nice way to reward the franchise as a whole.

STRONG CONTENDERS

11. Young Adult
    Jason Reitman's last two films received picture/director/screenplay nominations, not to mention these movies managed to get into several acting categories, as well. Now he is reunited with his Juno-screenwriter and landed an Oscar-winner in the lead role. It will come down to how 'light' it is : if it works more like a well-executed romantic comedy, the film might just miss the best picture nomination, if it is more 'dramedic' and gets an Academy-friendly release date, it might just get in. A lot will come down to the release dates : in my personal top10 there are 3 films that could get bumped to 2012.
12. The Ides of March
    George Clooney pulling a 2005 and receiving a bunch of nominations ? The premise is promising, that's for sure.
13. Moneyball
    Very Oscary sports-drama directed by Bennett Miller (Capote) with Brad Pitt in the lead role, also featuring the long-overdue Robin Wright.
14. My Week with Marilyn
    For me, it looks more like an acting showcase for the two leads (Michelle Williams, Kenneth Branagh) and maybe a few technical nominations (costume design, art direction) BUT it is a Weinstein-film...and the Weinsteins should never be underestimated, especially when it comes to Awards-campaigns.
15. Wuthering Heights
    I genuinely believe that Andrea Arnold (the director of the wonderful, criminally underrated Fish Tank) could do Wuthering Heights justice in the same, impressive way, Joe Wright did Pride and Prejudice. I think it could be the 'British film' in the best picture race. We'll see.
16. The Help
    Although it could surprise, this just simply sounds too „Oscary”, if there is such a thing. I think it will be more Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood and less The Color Purple. I can't wait to see though, how this one will turn out, I really liked the book...plus I would watch Viola Davis playing a wheelchair.
17. One Day
    This is the film that will prove without a doubt, whether Lone Scherfig is a one-trick-pony or not. My guess is...not. It looks excellent, Awards-wise the only problem is the summer release date, otherwise I'm expecting remarkable star-turns from Anne Hathaway and Jim Sturgess.
18. Jane Eyre
    It has the reviews, a very good 'Oscar-studio', a fantastic acting ensemble, top-notch crew (Academy Award-winning costume designer, composer) and still it has to overcome one extemely damaging factor : a March release date. If Jane Eyre pulls off a best picture nomination, it will be the 'earliest' nominee since Fargo (1996). The fact that Wuthering Heights is coming out late fall/early winter might hurt its chances, as well. And the leads' rival campaigns (A Dangerous Method, Restless) won't help it, either...
19. On the Road
    It has a promising cast, impressive source material yet I can't help but think it will be too small to notice in the end.
20. Win Win
    Thomas McCarthy became one of the most consistent writer-directors in the business (The Station Agent, The Visitor, Win Win), but I think the film came out way too early to get him the recognition he so richly deserves. A screenplay-nomination might happen, though.
21. Beginners
    Looks like an excellent acting showcase with a wonderful script and Focus did get The Kids are all right in the top10 last year (also a summer dramedy with a gay storyline featuring popular actors), but it is always a tough campaign for a summer release. Though Christopher Plummer has a good shot at getting a best supporting actor-nomination.
22. Meek's Cutoff
    Although it looks promising and has excellent early word, I think it will be just too small in the end.
23. Salmon Fishing in Yemen
    This film is a big question mark, nobody knows anything about it. What we DO know that it is directed by Lasse Hallström (The Cider House Rules, Chocolat) and features Ewan McGregor and Emily Blunt. That's definitely a good start...
24. Midnight in Paris
    Based on the trailer it definitely looks good (or at least better than Woody Allen's last film) and I sort of have the Vicky Cristina Barcelona-vibe, but in a year when pretty much all the great directors are apparently bringing their A-games, a summer comedy could fade faster than usually.
25. Water for Elephants
    It definitely has potential BUT it has to be either universally acclaimed (Metacritic :70+ ; Rottentomatoes : 75+) AND/OR make a lot of money (100M+ domestic). If it can't pull off at least one of these two, it doesn't stand a chance considering it is coming out way too early for a strong Awards-player.
26. Hanna
    Joe Wright is one of the best young directors, Saoirse Ronan is one of the best young actresses and Cate Blanchett...well, Cate Blanchett is simply one of the best PERIOD Having said that the genre isn't exactly the Academy's thing and the Spring release doesn't help, either.
27. Contagion
    Soderbergh back in the game ? Based on the stunning cast, it might just happen, but I need more information (photos, trailer, synopsis etc.) to rank it higher.
28. We bought a Zoo
    When Cameron Crowe works his magic, wonderful films happen (Singles, Jerry Maguire, Almost Famous), but he has been a more of a miss than hit lately (Vanilla Sky, Elizabethown). Let's hope he has his mojo back...the cast would definitely deserve the best version of him.
29. Coriolanus
    Early word is excellent and Ralph Fiennes has become (ridiculously) overdue considering the Academy doesn't even nominate him anymore even he gives several outstanding performances per year.
30. Machine Gun Preacher
    Could this be Marc Forster's ticket to the Kodak ? At the moment, I think it's highly unlikely...but then again, at the moment, basically I'm just guessing based on nothing...or at least not much.

LONG SHOTS

31. The Door
    The source material (Magda Szabo's novel) is truly wonderful and I have no doubt that Helen Mirren will do wonders to remarkably baity lead role of Emerence. The director (Istvan Szabo) has been working on this for years, he also wrote the screenplay and after a long and succesful carreer, I must say it would be great to see him finally receive a best picture and/or best director nomination.
32. 50/50
    If there weren't that many bittersweet comedies this year (The Descendants, Carnage, Young Adult, One Day, Win Win, Beginners, Midnight in Paris, We bought a Zoo) helmed by 'names' (Alexander Payne, Roman Polanski, Jason Reitman, Lone Scherfig, Thomas McCarthy, Woody Allen, Cameron Crowe), this one might have a better shot, and who knows, it could still surprise. But for now, I don't think it will.
33. Peace, Love and Misunderstanding
    It could be Bruce Beresford's (Driving Miss Daisy, Tender Mercies, 'Breaker' Morant) AND Jane Fonda's big Oscar-comeback. We need more info on this one.
34. Restless
    In Gus Van Sant's case, I don't think the question is 'will it be good ?', I think it is more like 'will they get it ?'
35. Melancholia
    Lars Von Trier's style might be too edgy/controversial for universal acclaim/big audiences but then again...we thought pretty much the same about Aronofsky and Black Swan's chances, and look how that one turned out.
36. Larry Crowne
    It has the potential to be a better-than-average romantic comedy featuring lovely performances from Julia Roberts and Tom Hanks. Having said that, romantic comedies usually don't fare well with the Academy. The HFPA on the other hand could eat it up.
37. The Conspirator
    The early consensus is that it isn't a bad film but it isn't a great one, either and that doesn't exactly scream Oscar, especially with such an early release date.
38. The Beaver
    I think it will be a good to great film featuring good to great performances, but in the end it might be too small for universal recognition and the jury is still out on Mel Gibson's carreer...could he make a comeback now or is it too soon ?
39. Anonymous
    Get this, people : Roland 'catastrophy film' Emmerich is directing a period piece starring the outstanding Vanessa Redgrave and the very consistent Rhys Ifans and David Thewlis. I must say, I'm intrigued...
40. Now
    A sci-fi thriller directed by the screenwriter of Gattaca and Truman Show, starring Justin Timberlake and Amanda Seyfried. It is definitely a tricky one...
41. Albert Nobbs
    I think it will be a one-woman-show and it will be all about Close and a best actress nomination/win, but if Rodrigo Garcia (Mother and Child) delivers, it could end up here, as well.
42. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    John Madden + Judi Dench + Maggie Smith ? It should work, the question is will it be memorable ?
43. The Iron Lady
    I have 100% faith in Meryl Streep, I truly believe she will nail this role, however Phylidda Lloyd still has to prove herself. I hope she is up for the challenge.
44. Violet and Daisy
    Recent Oscar-winning screenwriters failed to make much impact with their directorial debuts (Dustin Lance Black's What's wrong with Virginia; William Monahan's London Boulevard), so it's up to Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious) to break that trend.
45. The Impossible
    I don't know anything about this project, although the short premise seems rather baity, Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor are always solid choices and the director (The Orphanage) should be capable of delivering a powerful film, as well. We'll see.
46. The Eye of the Storm
    Fred Schepisi (A Cry in the Dark) directed one of the BEST Meryl Streep-performances to date and considering her body of work, that's an impressive accomplishment. This time around Charlotte Rampling is the lead, so the only question remains: can he direct one of the year's best lead performances AGAIN ? The presence of Geoffrey Rush and Judy Davis doesn't hurt, either...
47. Shame
    In my opinion, Hunger was brilliant so I'm looking forward to the McQueen-Fassbender reunion accompanied by the lovely Carey Mulligan. My only concern is that the film will be too small even if Fassbender's star is rising and Carey Mulligan is already an acclaimed young actress.
48. W.E.
    Hmm...Madonna directing. I will give her the benefit of the doubt, I won't form an opinion on this one just yet. Though I must say, I AM curious...
49. X-Men : First Class
    Matthew Vaughn is one of the most consistent directors today, so I think this will be a good to great film, as well. The genre on the other hand is definitely not the Academy's cup of tea...just ask 'The Dark Knight'.
50. Thor
    Once again, comic book-adaptations are not the Academy's thing BUT Kenneth Branagh might be......and if he truly envisioned the story like some kind of a greek tragedy, this could surprise us all in a very good way.