BP is starting to look interesting. I think currently these films have the best shot at getting the nomination (not the win) in this order :
NEAR-LOCK
1. The Power of the Dog - Luckily for us the early frontrunner is a true cinematic masterpiece so while it may not appeal to everyone thus could lose in the end, the nomination is all but guaranteed.
2. Belfast - The respectable reviews and Box Office will help but the arrival of several flashy late entries could complicate things for this classic "little film that could" type of contender.
IF REVIEWS ARE AS SOLID AS THE OFFICIAL EARLY WORD
3. Being the Ricardos - A film about the industry featuring industry faves behind and in front of the camera, that has been playing like gangbusters at early industry screenings. If the reviews will be at least similarly enthusiastic (70+ MC), I think the BP nod is happening.
4. Don't Look Up - A flashy dark comedy with a snappy screenplay and probably the most high-profile ensembles of all time ? I think it is in, as well, early word is good enough so even if it will divide critics somewhat, I think the biggest Academy branch (actors) will secure it the nod ... they might as well they all seem to be in it anyway.
STRONG CONTENDERS
5. Licorice Pizza - Definitely a critics's fave and 8-time nominee Paul Thomas Anderson is definitely long overdue for a big Oscar night, but his films - while always critically acclaimed memorable cinematic experiences - have a quite spotty Oscar track record. This looks like a cross between Boogie Nights (same era / similar aesthetics / dramedy vibe) and Punch Drunk Love (bittersweet kinda-romcom vibe) and neither of those films received BP / BD / lead acting nominations. So for now I am 99% sure about only one nomination here : original screenplay. It will probably make the cut in other top categories, as well, but I need to see how it performs with the guilds first because precedent is rather tricky here.
6. Dune - It will definitely get a lot of nominations, most of them in below the line categories. I am not as sold on its BP / BD prospects as most of the internet is, but I wouldn't be surprised, that's for sure. But for the record if Being the Ricardos AND Don't Look Up over perform with critics and West Side Story AND Nightmare Alley get raves, too, then that Villeneuve BD nod could suddenly become a very difficult proposition as brilliant as he always is.
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth - On paper (pedigree + rave reviews + fourth quarter release date) it is in and probably should be ranked higher, as well, but for whatever reason I am just not sure about this one. The Academy rarely goes for the avantgarde stuff but granted if they will this year, they will do it for a trio of their favourites (Coen+Washington+McDormand).
8. King Richard - I think the film was good not great and while I expect it to be a serious contender in the acting categories, I no longer think it will be a strong contender in BD so while a BP nod is still a strong possibility (pandemic-era Box Office further complicated by a day-and-date release is not great but also not a dealbreaker), I think it will be a filler BP nod. At best. It could just be 2 nominations total for Smith and Ellis, would not surprise me one bit.
HOLDING THEIR SLOTS (FOR NOW)
9. West Side Story - I have to keep reminding myself not to underestimate this one, I mean how could I underestimate the remake of a legendary BP winner directed by a legendary 2-time Oscar winning director, adapted by a 2-time Oscar nominee who also just happens to be a Pulitzer+Tony+Emmy winner. The production values also look top-notch and it also looks like an unprecedented acting showcase for three relatively unknown Latinx performers (Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez). Long story short : a filler BP nod looks likely even if it gets a lukewarm reception but if it gets strong reviews and even makes some money during the Holiday season ? All bets are off.
10. Nightmare Alley - I am getting a bit of a Licorice Pizza vibe here in a sense that this is once again a film from a fascinating director who always delivers "cinema" but not always gets the mainstream recognition that he deserves. The source material is good but not necessarily "must be remade" good so as far as Oscar-reception goes, I have to say, I am sensing more of a Crimson Peak vibe than The Shape of Water vibe this time. Then again nobody has seen it yet so I could be way off, it's just a hunch.
A HIGH-PROFILE PERFORMANCE COULD GET IT TO THE TOP OF THE SCREENER PILE
11. Spencer - Speaking of directors delivering "cinema". Most of the attention has been understandably on the central performance but I also believe the film would deserve strong consideration in score, cinematography, costumes the very least, as well, and if it were up to me than BP / BD would happen, too, the film was that good in my book. But it is not up to me so for now it is considerably more likely that it will get the Jackie nominations : actress, costumes, score. MAYBE a fourth because ffs how long does the Academy plan on ignoring the brilliance of Claire Mathon ?
12. Parallel Mothers - I haven't seen it yet but it is an Almodovar-Cruz reunion about motherhood and the last time they did something similar, I was madly in love with the end result (Volver). While the foreign language precedent doesn't help, ironically enough the snub by its own country in the Best International Film category, does. Since voters can't just nominate it there, their only option is BP which is great because it also can't split votes with itself between those two categories so the ones who love it, will ALL vote for it in BP since Best International Film is not an option. Also if the film is already a near-lock in acting and writing categories, BP consideration really can't be that far behind, either.
13. House of Gucci - Reviews are not bad but they are not great, either, so I think now it entirely depends on Box Office. It is a big-budget studio film and while due to the pandemic there will be some wiggle room here, if it is DOA like the other recent adult-skewing studio films, I think perception-wise it will be done. Mediocre reviews AND Box Office flop status is not a combo that will fly, it can get away with one of the two but not both. And for the record I am ranking it this low because I don't expect it to do super well at the Box Office, either.
14. Cyrano - VERY under the radar, no doubt about that, but at the same time it could be perfectly positioned for the voting periods of the major awards organisations so if it continues to get good ink and positive audience reactions, I think there is a chance this will emerge somewhat last minute. The fact that the much-praised Dinklage performance and the swoon-worthy aspect of the film could make it an appealing screener option for voters during the Holiday season, won't hurt, either.
14. tick, tick ... BOOM! - I went in cold and I was very pleasantly surprised by this one and if actors decide to support it (SAG + biggest Academy branch), I think there is still a chance this will rank higher than many of us are thinking right about now. For what it's worth its reviews are in that very-good-not-quite-great range that could go either way as far as BP consideration goes but at the end of the day, I think it will come down to the priorities of Netflix : their hands will be full with The Power of the Dog and Don't Look Up already and they are also pushing The Lost Daughter and Passing in major categories so in the end they may just decide to push only Garfield from the tick, tick...BOOM! team.
SERIOUS CONSIDERATION IN ACTING+WRITING COULD GIVE IT THE EDGE
15. The Lost Daughter - The film did get rave reviews, Maggie Gyllenhaal did win Best Screenplay at the Venice Film Festival and in the period of only 4 years, Olivia Colman did quickly become an Oscar darling with a win in lead and a follow-up nomination in supporting. And just like Parallel Mothers, if this one will also get serious consideration in acting and writing, then it will be clearly seen as one of the best films of the year, as well.
16. Passing - Rebecca Hall also made a big splash with this one in Sundance and then thanks to a fourth-quarter release by Netflix, the film reemerged with excellent timing when it received proper rave reviews (85 MC) and strong Oscar buzz for its actresses and while it very much looked like Ruth Negga will be the main Oscar bid here, considering Netflix got Tessa Thompson a seat at the THR roundtable even though they have 4 much higher-profile, Oscar winning leading ladies this season (Colman, Bullock, Berry, Lawrence), too, makes me think Thompson will get a splashy campaign from Netflix after all.
17. C'mon C'mon - Rave reviews should definitely help in the screenplay category even if the acting categories may not have room for the stellar central performances. We'll see, for now the film looks too small and quiet in a sea of flashy, loud, star-studded extravaganzas but if the critics group give it a boost, it may still be able to break through.
18. Mass - Ditto.
MOST LIKELY TO GET A SEMI-UNEXPECTED GUILD BOOST
19. The Last Duel - The relatively early release date, the good-not-great reviews and the abysmal Box Office are not great perception-wise, but the film also has a lot of vocal and high-profile fans and the classic Hollywood filmmaking could go a long way with guild voters, not to mention Jodie Comer's universally praised performance that could also garner a SAG surprise considering she is a TV icon and most of the SAG voters work in television ... she also has hometown advantage at the Baftas and the luxury of 10 Best Actress slots at the Golden Globes, so I would not underestimate her just yet, either. And if she makes the cut and the film gets a few tech nods, as well, AND Sir Ridley's other film doesn't get much, then a filler BP nod could still happen here. But those are a looooot of ifs. Hence the ranking.
20. Coda - It was a good film, not necessarily a great film and when those get released super early (August) and as expected, peak early, too, that usually means they won't be factors by December/January. Having said that a SAG Ensemble nomination remains a strong possibility and it can not be emphasised enough that if of all branches, the Actors support a movie, then that could go a long LONG way on Oscar Nominations Morning for sure
