2013 - The Leading Ladies

POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. Naomi Watts (Diana)
   An iconic role played by someone so luminous as Watts, is promising already and if she doesn't win for The Impossible this year, she will have a lot of leftover goodwill, as well.
2. Meryl Streep (August : Osage County)
   She would be an instant contender even if she played an armchair, but the role of Violet Weston in her hands AND the film backed by The Weinstein Company, basically guarantees at least the nomination.
3. Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
   Playing a depressed single mom sounds Awards-friendly enough, add the fact that Jason Reitman is great with female leads (Young Adult, Juno), and she might just win her second Oscar in the end.
4. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr Banks)
   FINALLY a worthy Oscar-comeback in the makings...Thompson – who shockingly enough hasn't been part of the Oscar game for almost two decades now – plays iconic Mary Poppins author P.L. Travers in this Disney Holiday release, directed by John Lee Hancock whose previous leading lady WON the Best Actress Oscar (The Blind Side).
5. Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
   This film seems like a daring piece of art, and as such, it could divide critics and audiences BUT if it will be embraced, with all the Oscar-love she has been receiving lately, Chastain could win. The fact that she has her own film (Hers), so does her co-star, James McAvoy (His), just makes this project all the more unique.
6. Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
   Olivier Dahan directed one of the best female performances in recent memory (Marion Cotillard in La Mome) and now his new female lead plays another iconic role. Kidman is remarkably talented, so even if the film disappoints, she most certainly won't, what might hurt her chances, is the damaging factor of split votes : she has two VERY baity supporting roles this year (The Railway Man, Stoker), so it might just happen that she will be recognized in that category this time.
7. Jennifer Lawrence (Serena OR Catching Fire)
   Serena is an excellent role and she most certainly has the chops to nail it, so if the film will be good enough, with the inevitable buzz and success the November release of Catching Fire will bring, she could easily emerge as the frontrunner...that is IF she loses this year.
8. Carey Mulligan (The Great Gatsby OR Inside Llewyn Davis)
   Another great actress who could be up for awards in both categories. Daisy Buchanan is a legendary role, one that has 'role of a lifetime' written all over it, meanwhile she could be a memorable supporting player in the Coen film.
9. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
   One-(wo)man shows are always risky, but I have great faith in the brilliant Alfonsó Cuarón and firmly believe this could be Bullock's best performance to date whether she receives a nomination in the end or not.
10. Judi Dench (Philomena)
    The role of a woman who searches for her adult son, who was taken away from her decades ago when she was forced to live in a convent, is baity enough, but in the hands of someone like the great Judi Dench AND directed by Stephen Frears (The Queen), it simply sounds pure gold.

2012 - Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
   Last year's revelation, Jessica Chastain seems to have the edge because unlike Lawrence, she delivers a dramatic performance and unlike Watts, her film is a very strong BP/BD contender.
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
   Still, Lawrence is in the crowdpleaser of the season, coming off a fantastic year that garnered her critical acclaim AND superstardom. She is definitely the It-girl of the year, question is, will she be the It-girl of the (Awards) Season, too ?
3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
   I've been saying this for months : she could WIN. She is widely considered as one of the best Oscar-less actresses, she plays a very Academy-friendly role in a family drama that has sleeper hit writen all over it. Hopefully she will have no trouble securing the nomination, and if the film becomes a Box Office hit by the time they start voting for the winners, I'm telling you, she WILL have a shot at this...especially if the Academy likes/loves her film enough to nominate it in other categories, too...after all, we all know it only needs a small, passionate fanbase to land a BP-nod (5% No1).

ON-PAPER LOCKS

4. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
   Precursors and precedent definitely favor her and it's very likely she will get her second Best Actress nomination for this film BUT I think there is a chance she will split votes with fellow French actress, Emmanuelle Riva. It's unlikely the Academy would nominate both of them – they rarely (=never?) nominate two foreign language performances in the same category in the same year, let alone in the same language - , so while I am fully aware the most likely scenario is 'CotillardIN/RivaOUT', I could see Riva replace her OR both of them losing the nomination after cancelling each other out. Rust & Bone is divisive and doesn't have the kind of unanimous critical acclaim Amour does, so I think as unlikely as it seems, Cotillard might get the 'We need to talk about Kevin' treatment in the end.
5. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
   Like Cotillard, Mirren also has the kind of precursors that usually result an Oscar nomination, having said that, I don't think she has the kind of passionate fanbase this year that several underestimated contenders in the Best Actress race do. Also, the usually reliable British-vote could be all over the place this time, she will probably lose a good chunk of it to fellow British contenders, Naomi Watts, Rachel Weisz, Maggie Smith and Keira Knightley.

MAJOR THREAT

6. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
   Now SHE definitely has the kind of passionate support that could garner her an Oscar nomination despite the lack of crucial (=SAG/GG) precursor-love. Based on precedent, Cotillard and Mirren are definitely ahead of her, but I could EASILY see her knocking out one of them.

2011 - Best Actress II.

POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
   Iconic role + decent overall reviews + Weinsteins...definitely sounds like a winner.
2. Viola Davis (The Help)
   Huge BO + great notices for her BUT not everybody buys her as the lead and that could be a problem.
3. Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
   Third Oscars rarely happen for meidocre films...but then again, she IS Meryl Streep!
4. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
   The overdue status should help her a lot, she could pull a 'Jeff Bridges' this year. The question is : could an understated, quiet lead performance get more votes than Marilyn Monroe, Margaret Thatcher and THE most likeable character of the race ?
5. Tilda Swinton (We need to talk about Kevin)
   Even though I consider this her best performance to date, I am not that sure that she will make it...unfortunately the Academy tends to ignore her.
6. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
   Unlikeable FEMALE lead of a contemporary comedy ? Well...it will be definitely tough road.
7. Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
   She REALLY needs the critics groups to stay in the race.
8. Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
   Ditto.
9. Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
   Ditto.
10. Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
    The Rapace-factor doesn't help + could she be already too late in the game ?

2011 - Best Actress

POTENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

1. Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
   I simply cannot see her losing this time around PERIOD
2. Meryl Streep (Margaret Thatcher)
   It will be definitely a tough call, but all in all, Close and Streep are highly acclaimed contemporaries, latter has already won twice, former has never won before. Having said that, this will be definitely her 'Queen' and she WILL nail it. The big question is what people want to see MORE : Meryl winning her long-overdue third OR Close FINALLY winning her first.
3. Michelle Williams (My week with Marylin)
   Playing one of the most iconic actresses of all time is 'Oscary' enough BUT having the Weinsteins in her corner, pretty much seals deal as far as nominations go. It would be a shock if she wouldn't get in considering these two very convincing factors.
4. Helen Mirren (The Door)
   I have absolutely no doubt that she will do wonders to this brilliant role, the only question remains : will the film have the momentum to get her traction ?
5. Anne Hathaway (One Day)
   Could Lone Scherfig do it again ? Probably and Anne Hathaway is definitely talented enough to pull off a wonderful performance just like the one Carey Mulligan delivered two years ago. The summer release date is a huge problem, although it is worth noting that the studio (Focus Features) did get a lead actress nomination last year for a summer release...
6. Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
   At the moment it's not clear  whether she will get a lead or a supporting campaign, based on recent precedent (The King's Speech), when a film has two strong male leads, the female lead gets the supporting treatment. For what it's worth, I'm sure she will be great as always.
7. Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
   We don't know much about the film, so it could go either way. I'm not sure the role is showy enough to fight off the considerable competition. We'll see.
8. Charlotte Rampling (The Eye of the Storm)
   A career-nomination has been long-overdue and this role seems like 'the one' but even if it is, the film could still turn out to be too small to recognize.
9. Kate Winslet (Carnage / Contagion)
   Both performances could end up in the supporting category, but since she is remarkably consistent and always good to great, she automatically gets the early vote of confidence. Even if former film doesn't even have a release date yet and latter might not be the Academy's cup of tea.
10. Jodie Foster (Carnage / The Beaver)
    Ditto...