PRE-OSCAR SUMMARY

	BEST PICTURE	BEST DIRECTOR	LEAD ACTRESS	LEAD ACTOR	S. ACTRESS	S. ACTOR	O. SCRIPT	A. SCRIPT
HFPA	ARGO	AFFLECK	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	WALTZ	DJANGO	-
Comedy	LESMIS		LAWRENCE	JACKMAN
GUILD	ARGO	AFFLECK	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	ZD30	ARGO
Ensemble	ARGO
BFCA	ARGO	AFFLECK	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	DJANGO	LINCOLN
BAFTA	ARGO	AFFLECK	RIVA	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	WALTZ	DJANGO	PLAYBOOK

BEST PICTURE : Based on precursors Argo is the frontrunner, but it is definitely trickier than it looks like. Only three films won Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination, and the most recent was Driving Miss Daisy (1989). Long story short : watch out for the films that made the cut in BD, as well (Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour) !

BEST DIRECTOR : Huge question mark since the director who won EVERYTHING, didn't receive a nomination in this category, so at this point, it is basically anybody's game. Steven Spielberg seems like the logical choice, because Ang Lee's film might not appeal to the most dominant Academy branch (Actors), but I wouldn't count out Michael Haneke, either, I think he is a much stronger contender than we give him credit for, and of course seeing how madly in love the Academy seems to be with Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell is still a viable possibility, as well.

BEST ACTRESS : As every SAG winner before her Jennifer Lawrence IS the frontrunner and seems to have the edge at the moment, but the Bafta victory definitely means Emmanuelle Riva could easily surprise , not to mention that a case can be made for Jessica Chastain and Naomi Watts, as well : if the Academy wants to make up for the Bigelow-snub the same way they will probably make up for the Affleck-snub, voting for Jessica Chastain might be the best way, meanwhile if the ugly truth will be that Riva doesn't have the wide support we think she does (SAG omission) and the 'it' girls split votes, long overdue Naomi Watts could emerge and probably few would argue with such decision, she is widely considered as one of the best actresses who never won an Oscar.

BEST ACTOR : It would be the biggest upset in recent memory if Daniel Day-Lewis didn't win on Sunday, and though the career-best performances of first time nominees Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper are certain to garner votes, probably not nearly enough to come even close to the landslide win Day-Lewis is expected to pull off.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS : Like Best Actor, this category seems like a done deal, and even though they like Sally Field, they really like her, not to mention there is still a chance the Academy will embrace Lincoln in a big way, this is Anne Hathaway's to lose.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR : I think Christoph Waltz will take this, he didn't only win the Golden Globe and Bafta, it's worth mentioning that he was basically ineligible for SAG, well, not really, but if my memory serves me well, it wasn't screened for them and no screeners were sent, either, so who knows, he might have won that too, had they seen the performance in time. Having said that SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones is definitely a very strong player, meanwhile Robert De Niro has been campaigning hard and Alan Arkin is in the Best Picture frontrunner, so once again, it seems we have a wide open race here,too, one that will end with someone's second (or in De Niro's case third) Oscar...and I am still frustrated it couldn't end with at least the first NOMINATION for Ewan McGregor who arguably delivered the most powerful supporting performance in 2012.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY : Quentin Tarantino won every award he was eligible for (hint, hint WGA), so he is definitely the frontrunner and despite the WGA victory, it's unlikely Mark Boal would win his second so soon AND with all the controversy surrounding his work, so my guess is that if anyone can get in Tarantino's way, it will be Michael Haneke (Amour), especially if he doesn't win Best Director.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY : Another category that is all over the place which once again proves that this is probably THE most unpredictable Oscar-year in a very, very long time. Chris Terrio (Argo) is the frontrunner, and though he would make a worthy winner, I am rooting for Tony Kushner (Lincoln) whose work I consider superior to every screenplay this year (or decade), meanwhile it is perfectly conceivable that the Academy will give it to David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) as a consolation prize for not giving him Best Director. IF Life of Pi emerges as the one to beat on Oscar night, of course David Magee could shock, but at this point, it's highly unlikely.

	BEST PICTURE	BEST DIRECTOR	LEAD ACTRESS	LEAD ACTOR	S. ACTRESS	S. ACTOR	O. SCRIPT	A. SCRIPT
NYFCC	ZD30	BIGELOW	WEISZ	DAY-LEWIS	FIELD	MCCONAUGHEY	-	LINCOLN
NBR	ZD30	BIGELOW	CHASTAIN	COOPER	DOWD	DICAPRIO	LOOPER	SLP
BOFCA	ZD30	BIGELOW	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	-	LINCOLN
BSFC	ZD30	BIGELOW	RIVA	DAY-LEWIS	FIELD	MILLER	-	LINCOLN
LAFCA	AMOUR	ANDERSON	RIVA	PHOENIX	ADAMS	HENRY	-	ARGO
			LAWRENCE
NYFCO	ZD30	BIGELOW	RIVA	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	ZD30	-
WAFCA	ZD30	BIGELOW	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	LOOPER	SLP
SDFCS	ARGO	AFFLECK	WILLIAMS	DAY-LEWIS	WATSON	WALTZ	MASTER	ARGO
LVFCS	PI	LEE	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	LOOPER	-
SFFCC	MASTER	BIGELOW	RIVA	PHOENIX	HUNT	JONES	ZD30	LINCOLN
KCFCC	MASTER	LEE	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	MASTER	ARGO
CFCA	ZD30	BIGELOW	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	ADAMS	HOFFMAN	ZD30	LINCOLN
IFJA	SAFETY	TARANTINO	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	SAFETY	PERKS
				COOPER
SEFCA	ARGO	AFFLECK	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	KINGDOM	ARGO
SLFCA	ARGO	AFFLECK	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HUNT	WALTZ	ZD30	LINCOLN
					DOWD			SLP
DFCS	SLP	RUSSELL	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	DE NIRO	-	SLP
AAFCA	ZD30	AFFLECK	CORINEALDI	WASHINGTON	FIELD	PARKER	MIDDLE	-
TFCA	MASTER	ANDERSON	WEISZ	LAVANT	GERSHON	HOFFMAN	MASTER	-
DFWFCA	LINCOLN	BIGELOW	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	FIELD	JONES	-	-
FFCC	ARGO	AFFLECK	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	LOOPER	ARGO
AFCA	ZD30	ANDERSON	LAWRENCE	PHOENIX	HATHAWAY	WALTZ	LOOPER	ARGO
UFCA	ZD30	ANDERSON	CHASTAIN	PHOENIX	HATHAWAY	HENRY	LOOPER	PERKS
			LAWRENCE
NFCS	ARGO	AFFLECK	LAWRENCE	HAWKES	FIELD	JONES	-	-
		BIGELOW	HUNT
OFCC	ARGO	AFFLECK	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	KINGDOM	ARGO
COFCA	KINGDOM	ANDERSON	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	WALTZ	KINGDOM	LINCOLN
NSFC	AMOUR	HANEKE	RIVA	DAY-LEWIS	ADAMS	MCCONAUGHEY	-	LINCOLN
HFCS	ARGO	AFFLECK	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	-	LINCOLN
NTFCA	LINCOLN	SPIELBERG	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	JONES	-	-
OFCS	ARGO	ANDERSON	CHASTAIN	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	KINGDOM	ARGO
VFCC	ZD30	BIGELOW	CHASTAIN	PHOENIX	ADAMS	HOFFMAN	ZD30	-
DFCS	ARGO	AFFLECK	LAWRENCE	DAY-LEWIS	HATHAWAY	HOFFMAN	KINGDOM	PLAYBOOK

Nomination Chart (Bafta-Guild-Golden Globe-BFCA) after the cut :

	BAFTA	GUILD	HFPA	BFCA
PICTURE	BAFTA	PGA	HFPA	BFCA	SAG Ensemble
	LINCOLN	LINCOLN	LINCOLN	LINCOLN	LINCOLN
	ARGO	ARGO	ARGO	ARGO	ARGO
	MISERABLES	MISERABLES	MISERABLES	MISERABLES	MISERABLES
		PLAYBOOK	PLAYBOOK	PLAYBOOK	PLAYBOOK
			MARIGOLD	-	MARIGOLD
	ZD30	ZD30	ZD30	ZD30
	LIFE OF PI	LIFE OF PI	LIFE OF PI	LIFE OF PI
		DJANGO	DJANGO	DJANGO
		MOONRISE	MOONRISE	MONRISE
		BEASTS	-	BEASTS
		SKYFALL	YEMEN	THE MASTER
DIRECTOR	BAFTA	DGA	HFPA	BFCA
	BIGELOW	BIGELOW	BIGELOW	BIGELOW
	AFFLECK	AFFLECK	AFFLECK	AFFLECK
	LEE	LEE	LEE	LEE
		SPIELBERG	SPIELBERG	SPIELBERG
		HOOPER	-	HOOPER
	TARANTINO	-	TARANTINO
	HANEKE			RUSSELL
ACTRESS	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
	CHASTAIN	CHASTAIN	CHASTAIN	CHASTAIN
	LAWRENCE	LAWRENCE	LAWRENCE	LAWRENCE
	COTILLARD	COTILLARD	COTILLARD	COTILLARD
		WATTS	WATTS	WATTS
	MIRREN	MIRREN	MIRREN
	RIVA	-	-	RIVA
			WEISZ	WALLIS
			SMITH
			STREEP
			DENCH
			BLUNT
ACTOR	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
	DAY-LEWIS	DAY-LEWIS	DAY-LEWIS	DAY-LEWIS
	JACKMAN	JACKMAN	JACKMAN	JACKMAN
	COOPER	COOPER	COOPER	COOPER
		HAWKES	HAWKES	HAWKES
		WASHINGTON	WASHINGTON	WASHINGTON
	PHOENIX	-	PHOENIX	PHOENIX
	AFFLECK		GERE
			MURRAY
			BLACK
			MCGREGOR
S. ACTRESS	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
	HATHAWAY	HATHAWAY	HATHAWAY	HATHAWAY
	FIELD	FIELD	FIELD	FIELD
	HUNT	HUNT	HUNT	HUNT
	ineligible	KIDMAN	KIDMAN
	ADAMS	-	ADAMS	ADAMS
	DENCH	-	-	DENCH
		SMITH		DOWD
S. ACTOR	BAFTA	SAG	HFPA	BFCA
	JONES	JONES	JONES	JONES
	HOFFMAN	HOFFMAN	HOFFMAN	HOFFMAN
	ARKIN	ARKIN	ARKIN	ARKIN
	BARDEM	BARDEM	-	BARDEM
		DE NIRO	-	DE NIRO
	WALTZ	-	WALTZ
			DICAPRIO	MCCONAUGHEY
O. SCRIPT	BAFTA	WGA*	HFPA	BFCA
	ZD30	ZD30	ZD30	ZD30
	DJANGO	ineligible	DJANGO	DJANGO
	THE MASTER	THE MASTER	-	THE MASTER
	MOONRISE	MOONRISE	-	MOONRISE
	AMOUR	LOOPER	-	LOOPER
		FLIGHT	-	FLIGHT
A. SCRIPT	BAFTA	WGA*	HFPA	BFCA
	LINCOLN	LINCOLN	LINCOLN	LINCOLN
	ARGO	ARGO	ARGO	ARGO
	PLAYBOOK	PLAYBOOK	PLAYBOOK	PLAYBOOK
	LIFE OF PI	LIFE OF PI	-	LIFE OF PI
	BEASTS	PERKS	-	PERKS